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All Journal Bandung Conference Series: Statistics Cidea Journal
Qathrunnada Salsabila
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Mathematics

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Penerapan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) pada Peramalan Data Inflasi di Kabupaten Cilacap Qathrunnada Salsabila; Suwanda
Bandung Conference Series: Statistics Vol. 4 No. 2 (2024): Bandung Conference Series: Statistics
Publisher : UNISBA Press

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29313/bcss.v4i2.15461

Abstract

Abstract. In the general and production subsection at the Central Statistics Agency of Cilacap Regency with tasks such as data collection, data recapitulation, entering survey documents conducted, and editing the Cilacap book in figures for 2023. In this study, the author wants to forecast inflation in Cilacap Regency from January 2018 to July 2023 to find out whether inflation at the end of 2023 will be higher than the previous year. This analysis uses the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) method with the parameters obtained, namely ARIMA (2,1,1). So it can be concluded that inflation that occurs in the next five months has increased and decreased from the previous year, namely 0.09% in August 2023; -0.04% in September 2023; -0.02% in October 2023; 0.03% in November 2023; -0.00% in December 2023. Abstrak. Pada subbagian umum dan produksi di Badan Pusat Statistika Kabupaten Cilacap dengan tugas-tugas seperti pengumpulan data, merekap data, mengentry dokumen survey yang dilakukan, serta mengedit buku Cilacap dalam angka 2023. Dalam penelitian ini penulis ingin melakukan peramalan inflasi di Kabupaten Cilacap dari bulan Januari tahun 2018 sampai bulan Juli tahun 2023 untuk mengetahui apakah inflasi di akhir tahun 2023 akan lebih tinggi dari bulan tahun sebelumnya. Analisis ini menggunakan metode ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) dengan parameter yang diperoleh yaitu ARIMA (2,1,1). Maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa inflasi yang terjadi lima bulan kedepan mengalami naik dan turun dari tahun sebelumnya yaitu sebesar 0.09% dibulan Agustus 2023; -0.04% di bulan September 2023; -0.02% dibulan Oktober 2023; 0.03% dibulan November 2023; -0.00% dibulan Desember 2023.
Analisis Pengaruh Indeks Harga Konsumen Bulanan Terhadap Inflasi Makanan Bulanan melalui Metode Analisis Regresis Sederhana Qathrunnada Salsabila; Nafisah Itsna Hasni
CiDEA Journal Vol. 2 No. 2 (2023): Desember : CiDEA Journal
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56444/cideajournal.v2i2.1311

Abstract

Economic stability created price stability, because a stable economy could result in low or affordable costs for the community. One indication of economic stability was inflation. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index was an important indicator of the financial market and was a general indicator of the level of inflation in Indonesia. For this reason, this research aimed to analyze the influence of the monthly consumer price index on monthly food inflation in Cilacap Regency. The data used in the research came from the Cilacap Regency Central Statistics Agency, which was then analyzed using a simple regression analysis method. The results of the analysis showed that there was no significant influence between the monthly consumer price index and monthly inflation. This was because the CPI was one of the indicators was used to measure the level of inflation. Changes in the CPI over time described the rate of increase (inflation) or rate of decline (deflation) of goods and services.
Analisis Pengaruh Indeks Harga Konsumen Bulanan Terhadap Inflasi Makanan Bulanan melalui Metode Analisis Regresis Sederhana Qathrunnada Salsabila; Nafisah Itsna Hasni
CiDEA Journal Vol. 2 No. 2 (2023): CiDEA Journal
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56444/cideajournal.v2i2.1311

Abstract

Economic stability created price stability, because a stable economy could result in low or affordable costs for the community. One indication of economic stability was inflation. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index was an important indicator of the financial market and was a general indicator of the level of inflation in Indonesia. For this reason, this research aimed to analyze the influence of the monthly consumer price index on monthly food inflation in Cilacap Regency. The data used in the research came from the Cilacap Regency Central Statistics Agency, which was then analyzed using a simple regression analysis method. The results of the analysis showed that there was no significant influence between the monthly consumer price index and monthly inflation. This was because the CPI was one of the indicators was used to measure the level of inflation. Changes in the CPI over time described the rate of increase (inflation) or rate of decline (deflation) of goods and services.
Co-Authors NAFISAH ITSNA HASNI Suwanda