Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2021 - 2026
0.61
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal Journal of Social And Economics Research International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics-IJCSAM
Ferry Vincenttius Ferdinand
Unknown Affiliation
Humanities Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Mathematics Social Sciences

Published : 2 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 2 Documents
Search

 1 
UNVEILING THE DYNAMICS OF DOMESTIC PRICES OF CACAO BEANS IN INDONESIA Olivia Kristianti Kusuma; Jessica; Yohan Chandrasukmana; Ferry Vincenttius Ferdinand
Journal of Social and Economics Research Vol 6 No 1 (2024): JSER, June 2024
Publisher : Ikatan Dosen Menulis

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54783/jser.v6i1.353

Abstract

This study is crucial for understanding the factors affecting cacao bean prices in Indonesia. Cacao is a vital commodity in the country's economy, and fluctuations in its price impact various stakeholders. By analyzing these factors, we can make informed decisions benefiting the government, industry, and cacao farmers. The purpose of this study is to analyze the domestic price of cacao beans in Indonesia. The dependent variable in this study is the domestic price of cacao in Indonesia, while the independent variables are volume of cacao bean exports, volume of cacao bean imports, global price of cacao beans, volume of domestic production of cacao beans, Rupiah to USD exchange rate, the federal reserve rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annual growth rate of Indonesia, and export duties imposed on export of cacao beans. This research design utilizes time series data from 1996 to 2022 to analyze the factors influencing the domestic price of cacao beans in Indonesia. The results of the analysis show that the variables of the volume of cacao bean imports, the global price of cacao beans, Rupiah to USD exchange rate, and dummy variable for export duties imposed on export of cacao beans are significant affecting the domestic price of cacao. While volume of cacao bean exports, the federal reserve rate, volume of domestic production of cacao beans and GDP annual growth rate of Indonesia are not significant. The non-significance of volume of cacao bean exports, the federal reserve rate, volume of domestic production of cacao beans, and GDP annual growth rate could be caused by weak relationships, multicollinearity, data issues, or model specification limitations.
A Predictive Framework for Transition ProbabilityShifts Using Environmental Data Via Lee-CarterModel Extension Kenneth Gunawan; Nicholas Andrew Tanubrata; Rex Aaron Holindo; Ferry Vincenttius Ferdinand; Helena Margaretha
(IJCSAM) International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics Vol. 12 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : LPPM Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j24775401.ijcsam.v12i2.10834

Abstract

This study addresses the challenge of incorporatingenvironmental data, particularly air pollution, into practicalactuarial models. This study extends the Lee-Carter modelusing environmental variables and employs LASSO regressionto address potential multicollinearity among pollution indicators.The results are closed-form approximations for estimating theexpected changes in transition probabilities from the previoustransition probabilities forecast within both multiple-state andmultiple-decrement models, which are calculated using currentenvironmental data. These approximations enable actuaries toquantify the expected difference in transition probabilities fromthe initial forecast by utilizing the newest environmental data thatwas previously unavailable. The framework is empirically testedusing a case study on a dementia-related multiple-state modelin the UK. Results show significant improvements in predictiveaccuracy, measured by reductions in Mean Absolute PercentageError (MAPE), reducing MAPE by over 40% in several agegroups. These results emphasize the value of environmentalintegration in actuarial modeling, particularly in the context ofhealth-related insurance products
Co-Authors Helena Margaretha Jessica Kenneth Gunawan Nicholas Andrew Tanubrata Olivia Kristianti Kusuma Rex Aaron Holindo Yohan Chandrasukmana