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All Journal Journal of Islamic Monetary Economics and Finance
Kusumawardhani, Dewi Fiscalina
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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OPTIMAL HEDGE RATIO OF SUKUK AND ISLAMIC EQUITY: A NOVEL APPROACH Nugroho, Bayu Adi; Kusumawardhani, Dewi Fiscalina
Journal of Islamic Monetary Economics and Finance Vol 9 No 4 (2023)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/jimf.v9i4.1909

Abstract

This research applies a novel model to compute a hedge ratio. Specifically, the model modifies volatility forecasts of an exponentially weighted moving average method to account for the fat-tailed distribution of returns. This simpler model aims to overcome the widely-known drawback of the complex GARCH models that a long daily return period is required to ensure the model’s convergence. The data are Islamic exchange-traded funds: SP Funds Dow Jones Global Sukuk ETF, Wahed FTSE USA Shariah ETF, and iShares MSCI EM Islamic UCITS ETF. Sukuk act as a diversifier over the turmoil period since they are positively correlated with Islamic equity and their volatility is less than that of Islamic equity. This work also implements widely-used methods such as Dynamic Equicorrelation-GARCH, GO-GARCH, asymmetric DCC-GARCH, naïve approach, and linear regression. Two forms of data splitting and a rolling-window analysis are carried out to reduce data mining bias. All models generate one-step ahead forecasts of hedge ratios. Applying wavelet-transformed returns and utility analysis incorporating third and fourth moments, the proposed models produce better performance than the competing models. The results remain the same irrespective of different hedging instruments (precious metals) and asset classes.
Co-Authors Bayu Adi Nugroho, Bayu Adi