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All Journal Journal of Mathematics Technology and Education
Nababan, Yosua Pernando
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Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Social Sciences Transportation

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Forecasting the Amount of Oil Palm Production in Simalungun Regency Based on Data for 2000-2019 Using Double Exponential Smoothing Method Nababan, Yosua Pernando; Pane, Rahmawati
Journal of Mathematics Technology and Education Vol. 1 No. 2 (2022): Journal of Mathematics Technology and Education
Publisher : Talenta Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (662.821 KB) | DOI: 10.32734/jomte.v1i2.7734

Abstract

Economic growth in our country comes from various sectors, one of which is the agricultural and plantation sectors. This sector plays an important role in generating a source of foreign exchange for our country after the oil and gas mining sector through its commodity exports. The data used by the author in this final project is secondary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics of North Sumatra regarding oil palm production in Simalungun Regency. Quantitative analysis is used to determine the amount of oil palm production in Simalungun Regency which is predicted in 2020, 2021, and 2022, involving production patterns from 2000 to 2019 Then based on the amount of production data, the data is processed using quantitative time forecasting methods. series, namely Double Exponential Smoothing one parameter from Brown, by looking at the resulting error value, namely the Mean Absoute Percentage Error (MAPE) value. Based on forecasting results, the amount of oil palm production in Simalungun Regency in 2020 is 467,295.15 tons, the amount of oil palm production in Simalungun Regency in 2021 is 501,766.48 tons, in 2022 it is 536,237.81 tons. So the production of palm oil in Simalungun Regency increases from year to year, but there are times when it decreases not so drastically, so it can be concluded that the production of palm oil harvests in Simalungun Regency is increasing.
Co-Authors Pane, Rahmawati