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All Journal International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science Journal (EMACS)
Setiawan, Karli Eka
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Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mathematics

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Journal : International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering

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Enhancing El Niño-Southern oscillation prediction using an attention-based sequence-to-sequence architecture Setiawan, Karli Eka; Fredyan, Renaldy; Alam, Islam Nur
International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) Vol 14, No 6: December 2024
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijece.v14i6.pp7057-7066

Abstract

The ability to accurately predict the EI Nino-Southern oscillation (ENSO) is essential for seasonal climate forecasting. Monitoring the Pacific Ocean's surface temperature has many benefits for human life, including a better understanding of climate and weather, the ability to predict summer and winter, the ability to manage natural resources, serving as a reference for maritime transportation and navigation needs, serving as a reference for climate change monitoring needs, and even serving as a renewable energy source by utilizing high sea surface temperatures. This study introduces a deep learning (DL) model with AttentionSeq2Luong model as our proposed model to the ENSO research community. The present study showcases the capability of our proposed model to effectively forecast the forthcoming monthly average Nino index compared to the baseline seq2seq architecture model. For the dataset, this study utilized monthly observations of Nino 12, Nino 3, Nino 34, and Nino 4 between January 1870 and August 2022. The brief result of our experiment was that applying Luong Attention in the seq2seq model reduced the RMSE error by around 0.03494, 0.04635, 0.03853, and 0.03892 for forecasting Nino 12, Nino 3, Nino 34, and Nino 4, respectively.
Enhancing spatiotemporal weather forecasting accuracy with 3D convolutional kernel through the sequence to sequence model Fredyan, Renaldy; Setiawan, Karli Eka; Minor, Kelvin Asclepius
International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) Vol 15, No 2: April 2025
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijece.v15i2.pp2022-2030

Abstract

Accurate weather forecasting is important when dealing with various sectors, such as retail, agriculture, and aviation, especially during extreme weather events like heat waves, droughts, and storms to prevent disaster impact. Traditional methods rely on complex, physics-based models to predict the Earth's stochastic systems. However, some technological advancements and the availability of extensive satellite data from beyond Earth have enhanced meteorological predictions and sent them to Earth's antennae. Deep learning models using this historical data show promise in improving forecast accuracy to enhance how models learn the data pattern. This study introduces a novel architecture, convolutional sequence to sequence (ConvSeq2Seq) network, which employs 3D convolutional neural networks (CNN) to address the challenges of spatiotemporal forecasting. Unlike recurrent neural network (RNN)--based models, which are time-consuming due to sequential processing, 3D CNNs capture spatial context more efficiently. ConvSeq2Seq overcomes the limitations of traditional CNN models by ensuring causal constraints and generating flexible length output sequences. Our experimental results demonstrate that ConvSeq2Seq outperforms traditional and modern RNN-based architectures in both prediction accuracy and time efficiency, leveraging historical meteorological data to provide a robust solution for weather forecasting applications. The proposed architecture outperforms the previous method, giving new insight when dealing with spatiotemporal with high density.
Co-Authors Alam, Islam Nur Annas, Taufiq Fredyan, Renaldy Majiid, Muhammad Rizki Nur Minor, Kelvin Asclepius Pamungkas, Prayoga Yudha Setiawan, Nicholas Lorenzo Shiddiqi, Hafizh Ash