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All Journal International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Jdi, Hamza
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Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering

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Comparison of time series temperature prediction with auto-regressive integrated moving average and recurrent neural network Jdi, Hamza; Falih, Noureddine
International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) Vol 14, No 2: April 2024
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijece.v14i2.pp1770-1778

Abstract

The region of Beni Mellal, Morocco is heavily dependent on the agricultural sector as its primary source of income. Accurate temperature prediction in agriculture has many benefits including improved crop planning, reduced crop damage, optimized irrigation systems and more sustainable agricultural practices. By having a better understanding of the expected temperature patterns, farmers can make informed decisions on planting schedules, protect crops from extreme temperature events, and use resources more efficiently. The lack of data-driven studies in agriculture impedes the digitalization of farming and the advancement of accurate long-term temperature prediction models. This underscores the significance of research to identify the optimal machine learning models for that purpose. A 22-year time series dataset (2000-2022) is used in the study. The machine-learning model auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and deep learning models simple recurrent neural network (SimpleRNN), gated recurrent unit (GRU), and long short-term memory (LSTM) were applied to the time series. The results are evaluated based on the mean absolute error (MAE). The findings indicate that the deep learning models outperformed the machine-learning model, with the GRU model achieving the lowest MAE.
Leveraging transformer models for enhanced temperature forecasting: a comparative analysis in the Beni Mellal region Jdi, Hamza; Falih, Noureddine
Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Vol 36, No 3: December 2024
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijeecs.v36.i3.pp1694-1700

Abstract

The remarkable impact of transformers in artificial intelligence, exemplified by applications like GPT-3 in language processing, has sparked interest in their potential for time series analysis. This study aims to explore whether transformers, specifically temporal fusion transformers (TFT), can outperform conventional methods in this domain. The research question is whether TFT exhibits superior performance compared to conventional recurrent neural network (RNN) methods, specifically gated recurrent unit (GRU), and traditional machine learning approaches, notably autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), in the context of time series analysis and temperature prediction. A comparative analysis is conducted among three models: ARIMA, GRU, and TFT. The study utilizes time series data spanning from 1984 to the end of 2022. The models’ performances are evaluated using multiple metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and the coefficient of determination (R2). The TFT model achieves the lowest MAE, indicating high accuracy in its predictions. It outperforms both the RNN and traditional machine learning in temperature prediction tasks. Integrating the TFT model with the FAO penman-monteith method could improve irrigation scheduling due to more accurate temperature predictions, potentially enhancing water efficiency and crop yields.
Co-Authors Falih, Noureddine