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All Journal International Journal of Power Electronics and Drive Systems (IJPEDS) Mechatronics, Electrical Power, and Vehicular Technology
Nugroho, Muhammad Very
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Control & Systems Engineering Electrical & Electronics Engineering

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A stacked LSTM model for day-ahead solar irradiance forecasting under tropical seasons in Java-Bali Nugroho, Muhammad Very; Prastawa, Andhika; Mardiansah, Fajril; Rezavidi, Arya; Fudholi, Ahmad; Palaloi, Sudirman
International Journal of Power Electronics and Drive Systems (IJPEDS) Vol 15, No 3: September 2024
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijpeds.v15.i3.pp1878-1891

Abstract

Accurate short-term solar irradiance forecasting is essential for the efficient management and planning of power generation, especially for solar energy, which holds a major role in the Indonesian Government’s energy transition policy. A novel day-ahead solar irradiance forecasting is proposed using a stacked long short-term memory (LSTM) model to support the energy planning in the Java-Bali grid. The proposed model utilizes the first historical solar irradiance data of Java-Bali obtained from direct measurement to forecast the next day’s hourly irradiance. The results are compared with the methods of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and recurrent neural network (RNN). This study revealed that the proposed model outperforms ARIMA and RNN, and regarded as a highly accurate forecast since root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and R2 are 25.56 W/m2, 7.27%, and 0.99, respectively. The stacked LSTM produces better forecasting in the dry season than in the wet season. The MAPE indicates that the LSTM's lowest accuracy for the dry season was 13.99%, which is categorized as a good forecast. The LSTM’s highest MAPE in the rainy season is 34.04%, which is categorized as a reasonable forecast. The proposed model shows its superiority and capability as a promising approach for short-term solar irradiance forecasting in Java-Bali.
Techno-economic assessment of Bilacenge PV grid system in Southwest Sumba Nurdiana, Eka; Nugroho, Muhammad Very; Fikriyadi, Zakariya Arif; Mardiansah, Fajril; Dianti, Dwie Vannia; Utami, Dannya Maharani Putri; Akhmad, Kholid; Margowadi, Yusuf; Rezavidi, Arya
Journal of Mechatronics, Electrical Power, and Vehicular Technology Vol 15, No 2 (2024)
Publisher : National Research and Innovation Agency

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55981/j.mev.2024.991

Abstract

A solar photovoltaic (PV) grid system with an Energy Management System (EMS) has been installed in Bilacenge, Southwest Sumba. This 400 kWp PV-Grid system is the first system in Indonesia that can control the electricity output to the grid. It comprises two battery blocks that support the system to maximize electricity generation. This study has been conducted to evaluate the installed PV-grid system with EMS compared to diesel generators commonly used in remote areas. The study employs various techno-economic methods, including life cycle cost (LCC), levelized cost of energy (LCoE), and economic feasibility analysis based on several parameters such as net present value (NPV), payback period (PBP), and benefit-cost ratio (BCR). The results show that the system will experience a return on investment after operating for 34 years, accompanied by a benefit-cost ratio value of 0.60, which indicates that the investment of this PV grid system is not economically profitable. 
Co-Authors Ahmad Fudholi Dianti, Dwie Vannia Eka Nurdiana Fikriyadi, Zakariya Arif Kholid Akhmad, Kholid Mardiansah, Fajril Margowadi, Yusuf Prastawa, Andhika Rezavidi, Arya sudirman palaloi Utami, Dannya Maharani Putri