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All Journal Ekonomikalia Journal of Economics Indatu Journal of Management and Accounting
Duwal, Niroj
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Environmental Science Social Sciences Other

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Journal : Indatu Journal of Management and Accounting

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Business Confidence in Indonesia: Which Macroeconomic Factors Have Long-Term Impact? Hardi, Irsan; Ali, Najabat; Duwal, Niroj; Devi, N. Chitra; Mardayanti, Ulfa; Idroes, Ghalieb Mutig
Indatu Journal of Management and Accounting Vol. 2 No. 1 (2024): June 2024
Publisher : Heca Sentra Analitika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.60084/ijma.v2i1.203

Abstract

Business confidence refers to the level of optimism or pessimism that business owners have about the prospects of their companies and the overall economy. Thus, the focus of this study is to examine the long-term impact of various macroeconomic factors—economic growth, government expenditure, interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, and the composite stock price index—on the business confidence index in Indonesia by utilizing monthly data from January 2009 to December 2022. We employ Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully-Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) as the main methods, with Canonical Cointegrating Regressions (CCR) as a robustness check method. The study also utilizes pairwise Granger causality tests for a comprehensive analysis. The findings indicate that all macroeconomic factors significantly impact the business confidence index in the long term across all methodologies. Specifically, economic growth, inflation, and the composite stock price index exert a positive impact, while government expenditure, interest rates, and exchange rates indicate a negative impact on the business confidence index. This evidence emphasizes the importance for businesses to diligently monitor macroeconomic trends and understand the patterns in these indicators so that companies can better anticipate changes in business sentiment. Taking a long-term perspective when making strategic decisions and investments is also advisable, recognizing that the influence of macroeconomic factors on business confidence may be more pronounced over time.
Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators: A Macro Perspective Hardi, Irsan; Ray, Samrat; Duwal, Niroj; Idroes, Ghalieb Mutig; Mardayanti, Ulfa
Indatu Journal of Management and Accounting Vol. 2 No. 2 (2024): December 2024
Publisher : Heca Sentra Analitika

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.60084/ijma.v2i2.241

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the determinants of consumer confidence in Indonesia, one of the largest consumer markets in the world. Various macroeconomic factors are assessed, including economic growth, government expenditure, the consumer price index, interest rates, unemployment, and stock price index, using monthly data from January 2009 to December 2022. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model as the primary method, with robustness checks using Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regressions (CCR). The results indicate that all selected factors significantly influence consumer confidence, particularly from a long-term perspective. Economic growth and unemployment have a positive impact, while government expenditure, the consumer price index, interest rates, and stock prices exert a negative effect. These findings suggest that businesses should align their strategies with economic trends to capitalize on periods of strong consumer sentiment and mitigate risks during downturns. Simultaneously, policymakers should prioritize effectively managing key macroeconomic factors to sustain and enhance overall consumer confidence.
Co-Authors Ali, Najabat Devi, N. Chitra Hardi, Irsan Idroes, Ghalieb Mutig Mardayanti, Ulfa Ray, Samrat Suwal, Sunil