Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2020 - 2025
0.23
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal Faktor Exacta
Zahro, Diah Ayu Fatimatus
Universitas PGRI Ronggolawe
Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Electrical & Electronics Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering

Published : 1 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 1 Documents
Search
Journal : Faktor Exacta

 1 
Komparasi Metode Grey GM (1.1) Dan Grey Verhulst Untuk Prediksi Harga Sembako Zahro, Diah Ayu Fatimatus; Muqtadir, Asfan; Suryanto, Andik Adi
Faktor Exacta Vol 17, No 2 (2024)
Publisher : LPPM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30998/faktorexacta.v17i2.22408

Abstract

This research explores the significance of basic commodities (sembako), such as rice and sugar, as essential necessities, with a focus on price fluctuations influenced by factors like seasonal variations and weather conditions. The pressing issue of rising food demand amid Indonesia's population growth is exacerbated by price fluctuations. The study utilizes grey forecasting method, specifically GM (1.1) and grey Verhulst, to predict the prices of basic commodities in East Java. The comparative results indicate that grey Verhulst excels in forecasting the prices of certain commodities, such as Premium Rice, while GM (1.1) proves more effective for the sugar category. This finding comes from an analysis of the ARPE value that shows the accuracy of the model in the price prediction. The research aims to contribute to addressing the challenges of price changes and instability in basic commodity prices influenced by seasonal factors. The lowest error rate for grey Verhulst is 1.9471% for premium rice, with the highest at 64.535% for sugar. For GM (1.1), the lowest error rate is 2.184% for medium rice, and the highest is 6.633% for premium rice.
Co-Authors Asfan Muqtadir Suryanto, Andik Adi