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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Jurnal Ilmiah Keperawatan
Musta'in, Ghufron
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Dentistry Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Health Professions Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Nursing Physics Public Health Transportation Veterinary

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Penyebaran Penyakit Menular Virus COVID-19 Varian Omicron di Indonesia dengan Model Susceptible Vaccinated Infected Recovered (SVIR) Musta'in, Ghufron; Ivanni, Anas; Yudanto, Febri Heryo
Jurnal Ilmiah Keperawatan STIKES Hang Tuah Surabaya Vol 17 No 2 (2022): October Edition
Publisher : Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Kesehatan Hang Tuah Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30643/jiksht.v17i2.194

Abstract

Coronavirus Disease 2019 atau COVID-19 merupakan penyakit menular disebabkan oleh virus Severe Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2/SARS CoV-2 dan pertama kali terindetifikasi di Wuhan, China. Hingga kini penyebaran virus tersebut semakin luas bahkan mulai berevolusi menjadi berbagai varian salah satunya varian Omicron. Menurut WHO, virus COVID-19 varian Omicron patut diwaspadai mengingat tingkat penularannya yang cepat serta gejala yang ditimbulkan tergolong parah. Tercatat hingga 15 April 2022, Indonesia menjadi negara dengan jumlah kasus positif COVID-19 varian Omicron tertinggi di Asia Tenggara. Penyebaran penyakit menular dapat direpresentasikan melalui model susceptible vaccinated infected recovered (). Dalam penelitian ini, digunakan model untuk mengetahui pola penyebaran dan interpretasi model pada penyebaran penyakit menular virus COVID-19 varian Omicron. Kemudian, model tersebut diterapkan pada kasus COVID-19 varian Omicron di Indonesia, dengan menggunakan data harian dari bulan Maret 2021 sampai 15 April 2022. Pola penyebaran yang diperoleh menunjukan bahwa penderita COVID-19 varian Omicron mengalami trend turun. Diperkirakan pada 3 Januari 2023 sudah tidak terdapat lagi penderita COVID-19 varian Omicron. Sehingga diprediksi target bebas COVID-19 varian Omicron dapat tercapai.
SUSCEPTIBLE VACCINATED INFECTED RECOVERED MODEL WITH THE EXCLUSIVE BREASTFEEDING AND ITS APPLICATION TO PNEUMONIA DATA IN INDONESIA Widyaningsih, Purnami; Musta'in, Ghufron; Saputro, Dewi Retno Sari
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 2 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss2pp999-1008

Abstract

The spread of infectious diseases can occur directly or indirectly. Pneumonia is an infectious respiratory tract disease. Indonesia is among the top 10 countries in the world concerning deaths caused by pneumonia. The spread of infectious diseases can be prevented through vaccination and exclusive breastfeeding, which play a role in providing body immunity. This study aims to formulate an SVIR model with exclusive breastfeeding, apply it to pneumonia in Indonesia, and determine its spread pattern and interpretation regarding the target of free pneumonia by 2030. The methods used were literature and applied studies. Through literature studies, the characteristics of infectious diseases were identified, assumptions and parameters of the model were added, and relationships between variables were determined. The applied method was to estimate the parameters and initial values of the model based on annual data on pneumonia disease in Indonesia. The formulated model is a system of first-order nonlinear differential equations. The model is applied to pneumonia based on annual data from 2013 to 2022 in Indonesia, and its solution is determined using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. Based on the model solution and 2021-2022 data, a MAPE value of 15% is obtained, indicating that the model is sufficiently accurate in explaining the spread of pneumonia in Indonesia. The spread pattern of pneumonia in Indonesia from 2013 to 2030 indicates a downward. However, as of 2030, there are still 67,261 individuals infected, indicating that the target of pneumonia-free Indonesia has not been achieved. Simulation shows that with exclusive breastfeeding rate value = 0.438852 and Hib vaccination rate = 0.25 it is estimated that the target of free pneumonia in Indonesia in 2030 will be achieved. The free target can also be achieved by increasing the exclusive breastfeeding rate to 73.9% and the Hib vaccination rate to 0.22.
Penyebaran Penyakit Menular Virus COVID-19 Varian Omicron di Indonesia dengan Model Susceptible Vaccinated Infected Recovered (SVIR) Musta'in, Ghufron; Ivanni, Anas; Yudanto, Febri Heryo
Jurnal Ilmiah Keperawatan STIKES Hang Tuah Surabaya Vol 17 No 2 (2022): October Edition
Publisher : Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Kesehatan Hang Tuah Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30643/jiksht.v17i2.194

Abstract

Coronavirus Disease 2019 atau COVID-19 merupakan penyakit menular disebabkan oleh virus Severe Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2/SARS CoV-2 dan pertama kali terindetifikasi di Wuhan, China. Hingga kini penyebaran virus tersebut semakin luas bahkan mulai berevolusi menjadi berbagai varian salah satunya varian Omicron. Menurut WHO, virus COVID-19 varian Omicron patut diwaspadai mengingat tingkat penularannya yang cepat serta gejala yang ditimbulkan tergolong parah. Tercatat hingga 15 April 2022, Indonesia menjadi negara dengan jumlah kasus positif COVID-19 varian Omicron tertinggi di Asia Tenggara. Penyebaran penyakit menular dapat direpresentasikan melalui model susceptible vaccinated infected recovered (). Dalam penelitian ini, digunakan model untuk mengetahui pola penyebaran dan interpretasi model pada penyebaran penyakit menular virus COVID-19 varian Omicron. Kemudian, model tersebut diterapkan pada kasus COVID-19 varian Omicron di Indonesia, dengan menggunakan data harian dari bulan Maret 2021 sampai 15 April 2022. Pola penyebaran yang diperoleh menunjukan bahwa penderita COVID-19 varian Omicron mengalami trend turun. Diperkirakan pada 3 Januari 2023 sudah tidak terdapat lagi penderita COVID-19 varian Omicron. Sehingga diprediksi target bebas COVID-19 varian Omicron dapat tercapai.
Co-Authors Dewi Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi Retno Ivanni, Anas Purnami Widyaningsih Yudanto, Febri Heryo