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Mapping landslide susceptibility in the Debretabor-Alember road sector, Northwestern Ethiopia through geospatial tools and statistical approaches Tesfaye, Betelhem; Jothimani, Muralitharan; Dawit, Zerihun
Journal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management Vol. 11 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : Brawijaya University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15243/jdmlm.2024.112.5169

Abstract

This study aimed to locate areas along the Debretabor-Alember route segment in northern Ethiopia that are susceptible to landslides. Geospatial tools, specifically frequency ratios (FR) and information values (IV), were used to develop landslide susceptibility maps (LSMs). A comprehensive on-site investigation and analysis of Google Earth imagery were conducted, resulting in the detection and analysis of 89 landslides, including current and historical events. The dataset used for validation comprised 78% of the previously documented landslides, whereas the remaining 22% was used for training. Several factors were considered in this study to determine landslide susceptibility, including "slope, aspect, curvature, elevation, lithology, distance from streams, land use and cover, precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)", and the FR and IV models. Based on the results obtained using the FR approach, specific areas exhibited different levels of susceptibility, ranging from very low to moderately high, medium, high, and very high. These areas covered a total of 18.4 km2 (19.9%), 18.9 km2 (20.5%), 19.7 km2 (20.3%), 17.7 km2 (20%), and 17.7 km2 (19%), respectively. The LSMs generated by the IV model indicated multiple susceptibility classes in the study area, varying from very low to very high. These maps revealed that 18.4 km2 (19.8%), 18.8 km2 (20%), 18.9 km2 (19.5%), 18.8 km2 (20.5%), and 18.3 km2 (19.8%) of the area fell into these susceptibility classes. The landslide density indicator method was employed to validate the LSMs. The FR and IV models demonstrated that a significant proportion of confirmed past and current landslide records (72.16% and 73.86%, respectively) occurred in regions with a high or very high susceptibility to landslides. Overall, the IV model, which utilized latent variable structural modeling (LSM) in the independent variable model, outperformed the fixed effects regression model (FR).
Mapping landslide susceptibility in Enfraz to Addis Zemen area Northwestern Ethiopia Wubalem, Azemeraw; Getahun, Belete; Hailemariam, Yohannes; Mesele, Alemu; Tesfaw, Gashaw; Dawit, Zerihun; Goshe, Endalkachew
Journal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management Vol. 12 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Brawijaya University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15243/jdmlm.2025.122.7095

Abstract

The study area (Enfraz to Addis Zemen) is located in northwestern Ethiopia, which frequently experiences landslides, causing damage to farmland, engineering structures, infrastructures, and villages, as well as animal and human fatalities. To manage this catastrophic hazard, a comprehensive GIS-based frequency ratio model (FR) was applied to produce a landslide susceptibility map. In this study, 134 landslides were identified from detailed fieldwork and Google Earth imagery analysis, split into 70% to develop the model and 30% for model validation. The relationship between landslide probability with landslide factor classes of lithology, annual mean rainfall, slope, aspect, curvature, elevation, distance to the river, and land use-land cover was analyzed in a GIS environment. FR model assigns weights to each factor class based on observed frequencies. These weighted factors were summed using a raster calculator to produce landslide susceptibility indexes (LSIs), which were classified into very low, low, moderate, high, and very high susceptibility classes using the natural break classification method. The model’s accuracy and performance were validated using the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC), which showed an AUC success rate of 92.2% and a predictive rate of 86.05%. These results confirm that the FR model is effective in landslide susceptibility modeling. The generated map can support decision-makers, urban planners, and researchers in land use planning, landslide mitigation strategies, and future research.