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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Aceh International Journal of Science and Technology Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Sirait, Timbang
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Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Pekerja Anak di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur Tahun 2021 Alwi, Rahmi Maulina; Sirait, Timbang
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2023 No 1 (2023): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2023
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2023i1.1601

Abstract

Child labor is a global issue contained in SDG's goal 8.7 which envisions the end of child labor in all its forms by 2025. In 2021 it is known that the province of NTT has a high number of child workers and ranks eighth out of 34 provinces in the world. Indonesia, and is above the national average. Much research has been done on child labor, but not much has considered the imbalance between success and failure in this child labor phenomenon. This research was conducted to determine the characteristics of child labor in the province of NTT in 2021 and the factors that influence it by using the firth logistic regression method which takes into account estimation bias in unbalanced data conditions. The research was conducted using data from the national socio-economic survey core module for March 2021. From the research it was found that the factors that influence child labor are the child's education level, child's age, child's gender, and marital status of the head of household.
Analisis Spasial Variabel-Variabel yang Memengaruhi Jumlah Kasus Baru HIV/AIDS di Provinsi Jawa Timur Tahun 2021 Thahar, Safira Fauziana; Sirait, Timbang
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2023 No 1 (2023): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2023
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2023i1.1602

Abstract

HIV/AIDS remains a global health emergency. In the last five years, East Java Province has always occupied the first position in the increase in the number of HIV/AIDS cases in Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to determine the variables that significantly affect the increase in the number of new HIV/AIDS cases in East Java Province in 2021 using the Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression analysis method to overcome overdispersion and spatial effects on data. The independent variables studied were the percentage of condom users, population density, percentage of poor people, average years of schooling, percentage of villages with crimes of drug distribution and abuse, ratio of the number of health facilities per 10.000 population, and ratio of the number of health workers per 10.000 population. The data came from the publications of the Health Office and the Central Bureau of Statistics of East Java Province. The results showed that the distribution of the number of new HIV/AIDS cases in East Java in 2021 tended to cluster. In addition, four groups of districts/cities were formed based on the similarity of independent variables that had a significant effect.
Pengaruh Kondisi Keuangan Pemerintah dan Kualitas Demokrasi terhadap Kesejahteraan Wilayah di Indonesia Tahun 2022 dengan Pendekatan Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Square (SEM PLS) Mandiri, Angga Jati; Sirait, Timbang
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2071

Abstract

Indonesia, adopting concept of welfare state, still has welfare issues, making Indonesia's regional welfare worse than several Southeast Asian countries. Indicates that Indonesia's regional welfare still needs to be improved. The approach is not only through socio-economic aspects, but also through political aspects. This study offers a political approach to financial sector with government financial conditions and mediating role of non-financial sector with quality of democracy. This study purposes to determine direct and indirect effects of government financial conditions and quality of democracy on regional welfare in Indonesia 2022. The analysis uses Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS) approach with 34 provinces in Indonesia as unit analysis. The results show that both have direct positive significant effect on regional welfare. Government financial condition has a direct positive significant effect on quality of democracy. Also, quality of democracy significantly mediates the effect of government financial conditions on regional welfare in Indonesia.
Spatial Autoregressive Modeling on Linear Mixed Models for Dependency Between Regions Sirait, Timbang
Aceh International Journal of Science and Technology Vol 12, No 1 (2023): April 2023
Publisher : Graduate School of Universitas Syiah Kuala

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13170/aijst.12.1.30403

Abstract

This study develops a linear mixed model (LMM) that includes spatial effects between regions with a spatial autoregressive model (SAR model). Between observations (regions) on that LMM are usually assumed to be independent. However, these assumptions are not always fulfilled due to dependency between regions. There are two important parts in spatial modeling: spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. In this study, we are concerned with the spatial lag or SAR models because dependency between variables of interest is easier to predict. On the other hand, all observations are real and can be directly seen from the data patterns. In addition, as a challenge for researchers to find all estimators while the values of the spatial dependence, sampling variance, and component variance are all unknown. This study aims to find all parameter estimators using a numerical approach and exact solutions. All exact estimators obtained are consistent estimators.
CONSTRUCTING OUT-MIGRATION POTENCY INDEX FROM PROVINCE OF INDONESIA IN 2019 Efendi, Nadya Namirasepti; Sirait, Timbang
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 16 No 4 (2022): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (455.83 KB) | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol16iss4pp1249-1258

Abstract

Out-migration is a solution that people do when their area is unable to fulfill their needs. However, the area of origin that people left behind is even more neglected because many productive and educated people are moving. To know the potency of out-migration, it is necessary to determine the push factors of migration. Lee (1966) and Lewis (1982) state that there are push factors including economic, demographic, environmental, infrastructure, and political factors. This study aims to build a composite indicator that is able to describe the potency of out-migration from a province of Indonesia in 2019. By utilizing data from various BPS’s publications, exploratory factor analysis was carried out with the guide from OECD (2008). As result, four factors were formed, namely economic population and infrastructure factor, welfare and pollution factor, social and security factor, and industrial and clean water factor. DKI Jakarta has the lowest potency and Papua has the highest potency. The correlation between HDI and the Out-Migration Potential Index (OMPI) is -0.798 so that the higher human development in an area, the lower potency to be left by the population. This index is a new index, it can be an illustration that given to the government in dealing regional development’s gap in Indonesia.
FINANCIAL INCLUSION, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND POVERTY IN INDONESIA WITH PANEL SIMULTANEOUS MODELS APPROACH Almasah, Munifah Zuhra; Sirait, Timbang
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 2 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss2pp1173-1182

Abstract

Financial inclusion is a condition that people have equal access to and use financial services. However, in 2021, Indonesia will have the fourth-highest proportion of unbanked citizens worldwide. Economic growth may have an indirect or direct impact on poverty depending on financial inclusion. Several variables that encourage financial inclusion have been described by many studies. This study aims to analyze simultaneous equation models using panel data of financial inclusion, then identify its causality relationship with economic growth and poverty of 33 provinces in Indonesia from 2011-2021. As result, only the variable mean years of school has an effect on increasing of financial inclusion index. The three variables of economic development, namely financial inclusion, economic growth, and poverty have a one-way causality relationship. That is means there has been no visible development synergy in terms of financial inclusion, economic growth, and poverty. It could be an example given to the government in evaluating Indonesia's regional development gap.
DETERMINANTS MODELING OF UNDERNUTRITION IN TODDLERS IN ACEH PROVINCE: A PLS-SEM APPROACH Surayya, Ninda Nailis; Sirait, Timbang
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 3 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1853-1864

Abstract

This study examines the escalating prevalence of underweight and wasting in Indonesia from 2019 to 2022. The prevalence of underweight has increased from 16.35% in 2019 to 17.1% in 2022 while wasting has increased from 7.4% to 7.7% during the same period. Aceh province faces a pressing issue of toddler malnutrition, ranking second with the highest prevalence of underweight (24.8%) and fourth highest in wasting prevalence (11.3%). According to the World Health Organization's malnutrition indicators classification, Aceh experiences notably high levels of underweight and very high levels of wasting. Employing Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) with data sourced from SSGI, publications from the Ministry of Health and BPS-Statistics Indonesia, and Aceh Provincial Food Agency, this research aims to model undernutritioned toddlers in Aceh Province. Findings reveal that undernutrition is directly affected by health access and food intake, with socioeconomic factors exerting an indirect effect. Notably, food intake emerges as the primary determinant of undernutrition.
MULTIDIMENSIONAL POVERTY MODELING IN CENTRAL JAVA, DI YOGYAKARTA, AND EAST JAVA PROVINCES Wibisono, Muhammad Arkham Maulana; Sirait, Timbang
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 18 No 3 (2024): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol18iss3pp1939-1954

Abstract

Indonesia has a National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) for 2020-2024 to reduce the poverty rate to 6 to 7 percent. However, the poverty rate has only declined by less than one percent in the past year, indicating the need for optimization to achieve the goal. Despite being located in Java, the center of development and economy in Indonesia, the poverty rate in Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, and East Java still exceeds the national average. This study used SUSENAS 2023 March KOR data to address this challenge and examine the multidimensional indicators affecting poverty. The Alkire-Foster method was used to obtain the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) number, which was then analyzed using the Structural Equation Model (SEM) with the Asymptotically Distribution-free (AD-f) method approach. SEM is used to observe latent variables that cannot be measured and the relationship between variables that form a multidimensional poverty index. AD-f method approach is used to overcome data non-normality in SEM processing. The study revealed that the percentage of multidimensional poverty in the three provinces is higher than monetary poverty due to the household unit of analysis used. The standard of living dimension was the most deprived in most households, followed by the health dimension. To tackle this issue, the study recommends optimizing access to the Internet, assets, preschool participation, and nutrition.
Property Crime in Java Island 2022 based on Demography and Socioeconomic Aspects using Spatial Analysis Approach Vallessy, Fabian La Wima; Sirait, Timbang
Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Vol. 22 No. 1 (2025): Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Volume 22 Nomor 1 Edisi Ma
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Ilmiah LPPM Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/limits.v22i1.3371

Abstract

Property crime is the most common type of crime in Indonesia with the most rapid increasing in 2022. Java is the island with the highest magnitude of 65.85% if it is compared to the previous year and accounts for more than one third of the total cases in Indonesia. This study aims to determine an overview of these types of criminal offenses and the variables that affect them spatially. The analysis method uses in this study is descriptive analysis which will followed by inferential analysis, namely spatial analysis using Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR). Based on this research, it is found that there are four regional groupings with variables that significantly affect all regions, namely life expectancy and Gini ratio. Meanwhile, there are variables that affect some regions, namely mean years schooling and total population. In addition, it is found that Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression is better used than negative binomial regression in modeling property crime in Java Island in 2022.
Variables that Influence Urban Sprawl in DKI Jakarta, West Java and Banten Provinces in 2020 Khamila, Azzahra Dhisa; Sirait, Timbang
Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Vol. 22 No. 1 (2025): Limits: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Volume 22 Nomor 1 Edisi Ma
Publisher : Pusat Publikasi Ilmiah LPPM Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/limits.v22i1.3372

Abstract

DKI Jakarta, West Java and Banten provinces are the place of two large metropolitan areas in Indonesia that are interconnected. As a result, these areas have a high level of urbanization which can lead to urban sprawl. Urban Sprawl can cause various negative impacts, especially on the environment. Therefore, it is necessary to minimize urban sprawl, one of many ways is by analyzing the variables that affect urban sprawl. Several studies on spatial analysis of urban sprawl have been made extensively using satellite imagery data, one of them states that NDBI can capture patterns, characteristics and the causes of urban sprawl. However, research that utilizes NDBI as a variable approach for the urban sprawl has never been conducted in Indonesia. Therefore, this research was conducted with the aim of analyzing the effect of variables that indicated influence urban sprawl in the provinces of DKI Jakarta, West Java and Banten using spatial analysis. The results show that the average NDBI value is high in urban areas where the majority are in DKI Jakarta province. The variables that significantly influence urban sprawl are percentage of migrant population and tertiary sector of GRDP. By focusing on these variables, the government can make policies to minimize and control urban sprawl that occur in their area.
Co-Authors Almasah, Munifah Zuhra Alwi, Rahmi Maulina Efendi, Nadya Namirasepti Khamila, Azzahra Dhisa Mandiri, Angga Jati Simbolon, Rika Lusiana Surayya, Ninda Nailis Thahar, Safira Fauziana Vallessy, Fabian La Wima Wibisono, Muhammad Arkham Maulana