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All Journal Jurnal Ilmu Dasar Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer Ikonomika : Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam
Syalsabilla, Alya Fitri
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Engineering Mathematics

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Identification of Rossby Atmosphere-Tropical Cyclone in Eastern Indonesian Waters Suhendar, Maldiva Hafiza Anjarika; Yulihastin, Erma; Syalsabilla, Alya Fitri; Azzahra, Syifa Alifia; Handoyo, Gentur; Ridwan, Agus Wawan; Dawami, Maulana Dwi Nur
Jurnal ILMU DASAR Vol 25 No 2 (2024)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Jember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.19184/jid.v25i2.43674

Abstract

Recent research has revealed that tropical cyclones can develop over eastern Indonesian waters influenced by marine heatwaves and Rossby waves in the atmosphere. However, there is no study documenting tropical cyclones that occur in conjunction with atmospheric Rossby waves (Rossby Atmospheric-Tropical Cyclones) and their association with increased sea surface temperatures in eastern Indonesian waters. This study aims to document the influence of Rossby waves in the atmosphere on the formation of tropical cyclones around the Indonesian region using 5 case studies in 2017-2022, namely: December 2017, January 2020, December 2020, December 2021, and April 2022. This study uses wind data, sea surface temperature, specific humidity, and temperature (2m) obtained from the European Re-Analysis (ERA5) with a temporal and spatial resolution of one hour and 0.25°×0.25°. The identification of Rossby waves is based on the Rossby index issued by the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies (NCICS). In this study, the Rossby Atmosphere-Tropical Cyclone is grouped into three phases, namely: early phase, mature phase, and late phase, using composite and statistical methods to calculate anomalies. The results showed that in the early phase, the existence of Rossby waves was shown by two twin vortices over eastern Indonesia, which was supported by high specific humidity, warming sea surface temperature (>+0.4°C), and higher surface temperature (>+0.3°C) over Timor. In the mature phase, the twin vortices over eastern waters transformed into a tropical cyclone over the Philippines. In the final phase, specific humidity decreases, sea surface temperature cools (<-0.3°C), and surface temperature decreases (<-0.3°C). The results also prove the crucial role of Timor waters in forming Rossby waves that can grow into tropical cyclones around Indonesia.
Optimalisasi Prediksi Harga Ihsg Menggunakan Hybrid Weighted Fuzzy Time Series Hidden Markov Model Dengan Algoritma Evolusi Differensial Syalsabilla, Alya Fitri; Astutik, Suci; Rozy, Agus Fachrur
Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer Vol 11 No 4: Agustus 2024
Publisher : Fakultas Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25126/jtiik.1148867

Abstract

Perdagangan saham berdasarkan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Indonesia adalah area dinamis dan kompleks. Prediksi pergerakan harga IHSG memiliki volatilitas pasar saham yang tinggi. Penggunaan Hybrid Weighted Fuzzy Time series Hidden Markov Model (WFTS-HMM) dengan Algoritma Evolusi Diferensial (DE) menjanjikan solusi dengan pendekatan terbaru. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meningkatkan akurasi prediksi harga IHSG melalui optimasi model hybrid.. Penelitian menggunakan data IHSG tiap bulan dari Januari hingga Desember 2023 dari situs www.yahoo.finance.com. Prediksi yang dihasilkan dari Model Hybrid WFTS-HMM dioptimasi dengan Algoritma ED memiliki tingkat kesalahan prediksi yang lebih rendah (1.45%) dibandingkan dengan model tanpa DE (1.49%).   Abstract   Stock trading based on IHSG in Indonesia is a dynamic and complex area. Predicting IHSG price movements entails high stock market volatility. Utilizing the Hybrid WFTS-HMM Model with the DE Algorithm promises a cutting-edge approach. This research aims to enhance the prediction of IHSG price through hybrid model optimization and performance evaluation. The study employs IHSG monthly data from January to December 2023 from www.yahoo.finance.com. Forecasting from the Hybrid WFTS-HMM Model with the DE Algorithm has lower prediction error (1.45%) compared to the model without DE (1.49%).
Evaluation Indonesian Financial Performance of Islamic Commercial Bank using Gaussian Mixture Model with Intervention Analysis Syalsabilla, Alya Fitri; Astutik, Suci; Shahuneeza Naseer, Mariyam
IKONOMIKA Vol 9, No 1 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Raden Intan Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24042/ijebi.v9i1.21760

Abstract

Indonesia, with its rich diversity and sizable Muslim population, holds a prominent position in global Islamic finance. Financial ratios like ROA, CAR, NPF, FDR, BOPO, and NOM are crucial for assessing bank performance. Employing Gaussian Mixture Model with Intervention Analysis enhances evaluation by identifying outliers and understanding their impact.Utilizing Islamic Banking Statistics from January to December 2023, this research employs purposive sampling to select relevant variables like CAR, NPF, FDR, BOPO, NOM, and ROA. Gaussian Mixture Model identifies data patterns, while Intervention Analysis examines factors affecting Islamic banking performance.Financial performance analysis reveals shifts from "Good Performance" to "Bad Performance" starting June 2023, linked to deteriorating metrics like NPF, FDR, and BOPO. Evaluation via GMM yields an AIC of 435.3409, indicating effective classification. Intervention analysis identifies significant NPF and ROA outliers, suggesting potential issues in loan quality and profitability.Analysis via GMM highlights performance dynamics in Islamic commercial banks, transitioning from "Good" to "Bad" post-June, mirroring critical metric shifts. Stable CAR indicates a solid base, but NPF outliers suggest risk management enhancements. BOPO outliers indicate inefficiencies, while ROA emphasizes profitability. Policy interventions should focus on risk management, cost efficiency, and profitability to sustain stability and competitiveness.
Co-Authors Azzahra, Syifa Alifia Dawami, Maulana Dwi Nur Gentur Handoyo Ridwan, Agus Wawan Rozy, Agus Fachrur Shahuneeza Naseer, Mariyam Suci Astutik Suhendar, Maldiva Hafiza Anjarika Yulihastin, Erma