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All Journal JURNAL NUSANTARA APLIKASI MANAJEMEN BISNIS Jurnal Kolaboratif Sains
Sri Dewi Fitrianingsih
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Prakiraan Laju Inflasi Kota-Kota di Pulau Sulawesi: Pendekatan Model ARMA: Forecasting Inflation Rate of Citie in Sulawesi Island: ARMA Model Approach Rahmawaty, Santi; I Kadek Bellyoni Dwijaya; Sri Dewi Fitrianingsih; Faris Septianto Nur Ali
Jurnal Kolaboratif Sains Vol. 8 No. 11: November 2025
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Palu

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.56338/jks.v8i11.9146

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memproyeksikan angka inflasi 6 Kota di Sulawesi menggunakan data bulanan dengan metode Box dan Jenkins. Data meliputi inflasi bulanan periode januari 2013 – juni 2023 mencakup 6 Kota di Sulawesi. Adapun tahapan metode peramalan meliputi uji stasioneritas data yang telah stasioner pada tingkat level, pemilihan ordo terbaik menghasilkan model ARMAberbeda pada masing-masing Kota. Hasil analisis estimasi inflasi 6 Kota di Sulawesi menunjukan tren berfluktuatif dengan proyeksi inflasi Kota Gorontalo tahun 2023 diperkirakan sebesar 2,90, inflasi Kota Kendari sebesar 4,98, inflasi Kota Makassar sebesar 3,55, inflasi Kota Manado sebesar 2,80, inflasi Kota Palu sebesar 3,17 dan inflasi Kota Mamuju sebesar 3,65. Analisis estimasi tidak mengandung unsur heteroskedastisitas sehingga tidak perlukan pengujian model ARCH/GARCH.
Measuring the Efficiency of State-Owned Stocks Using Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) I Kadek Bellyoni Dwijaya; Muhammad Yunus Kasim; Sri Dewi Fitrianingsih
Jurnal Nusantara Aplikasi Manajemen Bisnis Vol 9 No 1 (2024): Jurnal Nusantara Aplikasi Manajemen Bisnis
Publisher : UNIVERSITAS NUSANTARA PGRI KEDIRI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29407/nusamba.v9i1.21162

Abstract

Abstract Research aim : This study examines market efficiency using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) method on BUMN stocks in Indonesia. Design/Methode/Approach : This model explains the relationship between risk and return in an efficient market. The analysis focuses on using stock beta calculations for 5 years. Research Finding : The research results are as follows: 1) the BUMN stock market in Indonesia is classified as efficient, namely 11 stocks where 5 companies have positive individual returns, namely ANTM, TINS, KRAS, BBNI, and PGAS. There are 6 companies that have negative returns, namely WSKT, ADHI, WIKA, PTPP, SMBR, and BBTN. 2) the analysis was carried out during the covid-19 pandemic period, the basic material sector is a collection of stocks that are classified as resilient during the pandemic showing positive and efficient returns. 3) overall, there is a high systematic risk of BUMN stocks in Indonesia, and actively responds to any changes that occur in market prices. Theoretical contribution/Originality : This contribution is expected to be a reference for investors and market participants. Practitionel/Policy implication : These results provide information for investors to choose efficient State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN) stocks in deciding to invest and still consider the nature and characteristics of each investor. Research limitation : Future research is expected to use other methods in analyzing the level of stock risk such as Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) or estimating future stock prices using the ARIMA / GarCH forecasting method and increasing the number of samples in the study or different market indices so that the expected results are more accurate in predicting future stock prices.
Co-Authors Faris Septianto Nur Ali i kadek bellyoni dwijaya Muhammad Yunus Kasim Rahmawaty, Santi