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Arnandya, Evelyn Regita
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Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Social Sciences Other

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SIMULATION OF DISCRETE-TIME MARKOV CHAIN SUSCEPTIBLE VACCINATED INFECTED RECOVERED SUSCEPTIBLE (DTMC SVIRS) STOCHASTIC EPIDEMIC MODEL ON THE SPREAD OF TUBERCULOSIS DISEASE IN CENTRAL JAVA Arnandya, Evelyn Regita; Respatiwulan, Respatiwulan; Susanti, Yuliana
International Conference on Humanity Education and Society (ICHES) Vol. 3 No. 1 (2024): Third International Conference on Humanity Education and Society (ICHES)
Publisher : FORPIM PTKIS ZONA TAPAL KUDA

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Abstract

One of the infectious diseases that is still a public health challenge in Indonesia is tuberculosis (TB). This study is intended to model the spread of TB disease in Central Java using the Discrete-Time Markov Chain Susceptible Vaccinated Infected Recovered Susceptible (DTMC SVIRS) stochastic epidemic model. This model categorizes the population into four groups: susceptible, vaccinated, infected, and recovered. The transition probabilities between these groups are obtained based on transmission, vaccination, vaccine failure, vaccine effectiveness, recovery, and waning immunity rates. Parameter values were estimated using TB data from the Central Java Health Profile. Simulations were performed with different transmission rate treatments to analyze their effect on epidemic dynamics. The results show that the higher transmission rate, the longer it takes to reach the peak of epidemic and the more individuals are infected, which indicates a more serious epidemic. The model predicts that the epidemic will continue timelessly due to waning immunity and remaining susceptibility. The SVIRS model provides an overview of the spread of TB in Central Java.
SIMULATION OF DISCRETE-TIME MARKOV CHAIN SUSCEPTIBLE VACCINATED INFECTED RECOVERED SUSCEPTIBLE (DTMC SVIRS) STOCHASTIC EPIDEMIC MODEL ON THE SPREAD OF TUBERCULOSIS DISEASE IN CENTRAL JAVA Arnandya, Evelyn Regita; Respatiwulan, Respatiwulan; Susanti, and Yuliana
International Conference on Humanity Education and Society (ICHES) Vol. 3 No. 1 (2024): Third International Conference on Humanity Education and Society (ICHES)
Publisher : FORPIM PTKIS ZONA TAPAL KUDA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

One of the infectious diseases that is still a public health challenge in Indonesia is tuberculosis (TB). This study is intended to model the spread of TB disease in Central Java using the Discrete-Time Markov Chain Susceptible Vaccinated Infected Recovered Susceptible (DTMC SVIRS) stochastic epidemic model. This model categorizes the population into four groups: susceptible, vaccinated, infected, and recovered. The transition probabilities between these groups are obtained based on transmission, vaccination, vaccine failure, vaccine effectiveness, recovery, and waning immunity rates. Parameter values were estimated using TB data from the Central Java Health Profile. Simulations were performed with different transmission rate treatments to analyze their effect on epidemic dynamics. The results show that the higher transmission rate, the longer it takes to reach the peak of epidemic and the more individuals are infected, which indicates a more serious epidemic. The model predicts that the epidemic will continue timelessly due to waning immunity and remaining susceptibility. The SVIRS model provides an overview of the spread of TB in Central Java.
Co-Authors Respatiwulan, Respatiwulan Susanti, and Yuliana Yuliana Susanti, Yuliana