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All Journal Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)
Herdiantini , Rizka Fitria
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Mathematics

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Peramalan Inflow dan Outflow Uang Kartal Menggunakan X-13 ARIMA-SEATS Herdiantini , Rizka Fitria; Kartikasari, Mujiati Dwi
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 7 No. 2 (2024): Volume 07 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2024)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v7i2.4331

Abstract

Currency is an important part of Indonesian society's economic transactions. In order to effectively manage the amount of currency in circulation, Bank Indonesia must carefully plan and estimate its currency needs. One way to estimate this need is by looking at Bank Indonesia's inflow and outflow. Therefore, forecasting currency inflow and outflow is crucial for future planning. Inflow and outflow data are included in the time series that is affected by calendar variations. Traditional forecasting methods, such as exponential smoothing and ARIMA, cannot handle these variations. Therefore, this study uses the X-13 ARIMA-SEATS method, which is able to forecast time series data with the effect of calendar variations. Based on monthly data on currency inflow and outflow from January 2015 to December 2022, the results show that the X-13 ARIMA-SEATS method is effective when used with the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) criteria.
Co-Authors Kartikasari, Mujiati Dwi