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Arief Andy Soebroto
Teknik Informatika, Universitas Brawijaya, Indonesia
Computer Science & IT

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Optimalisasi Prediksi Kasus COVID-19 di Indonesia: Perbandingan Teknik Validasi 80-20 Split dan Walk-Forward dengan ARIMA Divanda Arya Inasta Asrul; Arief Andy Soebroto
J-INTECH ( Journal of Information and Technology) Vol 12 No 02 (2024): J-Intech : Journal of Information and Technology
Publisher : LPPM STIKI MALANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32664/j-intech.v12i02.1373

Abstract

This study presents a comparative analysis of the 80-20 split and walk-forward validation techniques for forecasting daily COVID-19 cases in Indonesia using the ARIMA model. Building on previous research, the ARIMA model has proven effective in various epidemiological contexts; however, this study highlights the critical importance of selecting the appropriate validation technique. The study uses data from January 3, 2020, to October 18, 2023, to develop a predictive model evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The findings indicate that the walk-forward validation technique outperforms the 80-20 split, with MAE of 137.32 and RMSE of 198.23, compared to the 80-20 split MAE of 4190.92 and RMSE of 4479.15. These results suggest that walk-forward validation provides more accurate and reliable predictions, particularly for dynamic and non-stationary data scenarios. This study underscores the significant impact of validation technique selection on ARIMA model performance, contributing new insights into forecasting methodologies in epidemiology.
Sistem Informasi Profil Kelompok Pertanian Terpadu Berbasis Web dengan Integrated Farming (Studi Kasus: Desa Dawuhan, Malang) Arief Andy Soebroto; Nurul Hidayat; Rizal Setya Perdana; Indriati Indriati; Hendra Darmawan; Raihan Fikri Brilliansyach; Mohammad Ibnu; Nadhira Nurannisa; M Azka Obila Vasya
J-INTECH ( Journal of Information and Technology) Vol 12 No 02 (2024): J-Intech : Journal of Information and Technology
Publisher : LPPM STIKI MALANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32664/j-intech.v12i02.1501

Abstract

Dawuhan Village in Poncokusumo District, Malang Regency, is an evolving village with significant potential in the livestock sector. However, livestock data management in this village is still done manually, facing various challenges such as limited access, data integrity issues, and time-consuming processes. To address these issues, this research aims to develop a Web-Based Integrated Livestock Group Profile Information System. The primary objectives of this study are to improve accessibility, streamline the livestock data management process, and enhance data accuracy and security. The system is designed using the Next.js framework, chosen for its ease of use and security in implementing authentication and authorization, as well as its capability for future integration. The research results show that the developed system functions according to the requirements, providing a more efficient platform, reducing errors, and enhancing the user experience for farmers involved in data management. The implementation of this system is expected to improve operational efficiency and livestock data management in Dawuhan Village comprehensively.
Co-Authors Divanda Arya Inasta Asrul Hendra Darmawan Indriati Indriati M Azka Obila Vasya Mohammad Ibnu Nadhira Nurannisa Nurul Hidayat Raihan Fikri Brilliansyach Rizal Setya Perdana