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All Journal JURMA : Jurnal Program Mahasiswa Kreatif Journal of Scientific Insights
Siregar, Kardina
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Implications of Macro Economic Conditions for Banking Effectiveness in Indonesia Ningsih, Nuri Rahayu; Rusdianto, Budi; Siregar, Kardina; Zulfa, Andria; Sakuntala, Dwita
Jurma : Jurnal Program Mahasiswa Kreatif Vol 8 No 2 (2024): DESEMBER
Publisher : LPPM UIKA Bogor

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Abstract

This research aims to determine banking effectiveness. The variables in this research are Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Non-Performing Loans (NPL), Economic Growth (GDP), Inflation, and Exchange Rates. The analytical method used in this research is the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model with the Impulse Response Function (IRF) test, Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD), stationarity test, cointegration test, structural lag stability test, and optimal lag length test. The results of Vector Autoregressive research using a lag 2 basis show that there is a contribution from each variable to the variable itself and other variables. The results of the Vector Autoregression analysis also show that the past variable (t-1) contributes to the current variable, both the variable itself and other variables. From the analysis results, there is a reciprocal relationship between one variable and another variable. Response Function analysis shows that there is a response of other variables to changes in one variable in the short, medium, and long term, and it is known that the stability of the response of all variables is formed in 5 years or long term. Variance Analysis Decomposition shows the existence of variables that have the largest contribution to the variable itself in the short, medium, and long term, such as INF and KURS. Meanwhile, other variables that have the greatest influence on the variable itself and are supported by other variables in the short, medium, and long term are CAR and NPL which are most influenced by the EXCHANGE and GDP.
The Impact of Inflation on Indonesia's Economic Growth from an Islamic Economic Perspective Suhendi; Siregar, Kardina
Journal of Scientific Insights Vol. 2 No. 4 (2025): August
Publisher : Science Tech Group

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.69930/jsi.v2i4.456

Abstract

This study aims to examine the influence of inflation on Indonesia's economic growth from the perspective of Islamic economics, by incorporating other macroeconomic variables such as investment, poverty rate, and Islamic banking financing. The research utilizes the Vector Autoregression (VAR) method to explore dynamic relationships between variables and to assess both short- and long-term shock impacts from one variable to another. Annual time-series data from 2005 to 2023 were used, sourced from official publications by BPS and the World Bank. The findings reveal that inflation plays a dominant role in reducing economic growth in the short term. However, in the medium and long term, the roles of investment and poverty become increasingly significant. Islamic banking financing also demonstrates growing contributions over time, even though other macroeconomic variables have yet to reach full feasibility. These findings are reinforced by the Impulse Response Function (IRF) analysis, which shows varied responses to shocks among variables, and by the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD), which confirms that interactions among the variables are dynamic and evolve over time. The study concludes that maintaining inflation stability and enhancing investment are vital for supporting sustainable economic growth. Furthermore, strengthening the Islamic financial sector could serve as a strategic foundation for promoting equitable, inclusive, and Sharia-compliant economic development. These insights provide valuable input for government and financial authorities in formulating macroeconomic policies rooted in Islamic values.
Co-Authors Andria Zulfa Dwita Sakuntala Ningsih, Nuri Rahayu Rusdianto, Budi Suhendi