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Penerapan Model Kealhofer Merton Vasicek Dalam Memperhitungkan Risiko Kredit Motor Rambe, Dwi Wahyuni; Rakhmawati, Fibri
Sains dan Matematika Vol. 9 No. 2 (2024): Oktober, Sains & Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26740/sainsmat..v9n2.p32-38

Abstract

Penggunaan sepeda motor di Indonesia meningkat pesat seiring dengan pertumbuhan fasilitas kredit motor yang ditawarkan lembaga keuangan. Adira Finance salah satu penyedia kredit motor yang menghadapi potensi risiko kredit tinggi akibat kurangnya analisis risiko menyeluruh dan sejauh ini analisis risiko kredit belum dilakukan oleh Adira Finance. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengukur risiko kredit di Adira Finance menggunakan model Kealhofer Merton Vasicek (KMV). Hasil yang diperoleh yaitu nilai Expected Default Frequency (EDF) sebesar 6,32%. Dimana nilai EDF merupakan kemungkinan gagal bayar yang dialami perusahaan. Hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa kemungkinan kegagalan perusahaan (default) yang dialami oleh Adira Finance menunjukkan angka yang tidak kecil namun tidak besar pula. Adira Finance dapat dinyatakan memiliki modal yang cukup sehingga peluang untuk gagal bayar tidak terlalu besar.   Motorcycle usage in Indonesia has increased rapidly in line with the growth of motorcycle credit facilities offered by financial institutions. Adira Finance, one of the motorcycle credit providers, faces a high potential credit risk due to the lack of comprehensive risk analysis, and thus far, credit risk analysis has not been conducted by Adira Finance. This study aims to measure credit risk at Adira Finance using the Kealhofer Merton Vasicek (KMV) model. The results show an Expected Default Frequency (EDF) of 6.32%, representing the likelihood of default experienced by the company. These findings indicate that the likelihood of default faced by Adira Finance is moderate not negligible, but not excessively high either. Adira Finance can be considered to have sufficient capital, thereby minimizing the risk of default.  
Credit Risk Analysis on Motor Vehicle Financing Using the Kealhofer Merton Vasicek Model (KMV) Rambe, Dwi Wahyuni; Rakhmawati, Fibri
Journal of Computer Networks, Architecture and High Performance Computing Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025): Article Research January 2025
Publisher : Information Technology and Science (ITScience)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47709/cnahpc.v7i1.5569

Abstract

The development of the automotive sector in Indonesia continues to show significant growth, in line with the increasing demand for motor vehicles, both cars and motorcycles. Although it has great potential, the vehicle financing sector is not without challenges, particularly related to credit risk. The Kealhofer Merton Vasicek (KMV) model will be suitable for calculating vehicle credit risk because it can predict default (failure to pay) when the borrower reaches the end of the loan term. The objective of this research is to apply the KMV model to calculate the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) value and determine the minimum credit risk. From the analysis and estimation results, the time-to-maturity equity value for motor vehicles was obtained at Rp9.616.709.886 and the time-to-maturity liability value at Rp1.865.460.114, while for cars, the equity value was obtained at Rp2.057.843.305 and the time-to-maturity liability value at Rp468.544.695. Additionally, the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) value for motor vehicles was obtained at 4,26% and the EDF value for cars at 0,01%. The results indicate that the likelihood of default experienced by Adira Finance is low, especially for cars. Therefore, Adira Finance can be stated to have sufficient capital, so the likelihood of default is not high.
Credit Risk Analysis on Motor Vehicle Financing Using the Kealhofer Merton Vasicek Model (KMV) Rambe, Dwi Wahyuni; Rakhmawati, Fibri
Journal of Computer Networks, Architecture and High Performance Computing Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025): Article Research January 2025
Publisher : Information Technology and Science (ITScience)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47709/cnahpc.v7i1.5569

Abstract

The development of the automotive sector in Indonesia continues to show significant growth, in line with the increasing demand for motor vehicles, both cars and motorcycles. Although it has great potential, the vehicle financing sector is not without challenges, particularly related to credit risk. The Kealhofer Merton Vasicek (KMV) model will be suitable for calculating vehicle credit risk because it can predict default (failure to pay) when the borrower reaches the end of the loan term. The objective of this research is to apply the KMV model to calculate the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) value and determine the minimum credit risk. From the analysis and estimation results, the time-to-maturity equity value for motor vehicles was obtained at Rp9.616.709.886 and the time-to-maturity liability value at Rp1.865.460.114, while for cars, the equity value was obtained at Rp2.057.843.305 and the time-to-maturity liability value at Rp468.544.695. Additionally, the Expected Default Frequency (EDF) value for motor vehicles was obtained at 4,26% and the EDF value for cars at 0,01%. The results indicate that the likelihood of default experienced by Adira Finance is low, especially for cars. Therefore, Adira Finance can be stated to have sufficient capital, so the likelihood of default is not high.