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All Journal Civil Engineering Journal
Setiawan, Muhammad I.
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Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture

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Development of Pavement Deterioration Models Using Markov Chain Process Isradi, Muhammad; Rifai, Andri I.; Prasetijo, Joewono; Kinasih, Reni K.; Setiawan, Muhammad I.
Civil Engineering Journal Vol 10, No 9 (2024): September
Publisher : Salehan Institute of Higher Education

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.28991/CEJ-2024-010-09-012

Abstract

A common phenomenon in developing countries is that the function of the pavement in the road network will experience structural damage before the completion of life is reached, and the uncertainty of pavement damage is difficult to predict. Planning for maintenance treatment depends on the accuracy of predicting future pavement performance and observing current conditions. This study aims to apply the Markovian probability operational research process to develop a decision support system predicting future pavement conditions. Furthermore, it determines policies and effectiveness in managing and maintaining roads. A standard approach that can be used by observing the history of pavement damage from year to year is to estimate the transition probability as a Markovian-based performance prediction model. The results show that the application of the model is quite optimal, changes in pavement conditions after repair can be easily compared with an increase in good condition, reaching 92.8%. Routinely and consistently handling road deterioration will give favorable results regarding pavement condition value. This will ease in the management of the road network and the accomplishment of the optimal maintenance and repair policies. Doi: 10.28991/CEJ-2024-010-09-012 Full Text: PDF
Co-Authors Kinasih, Reni K. Muhammad Isradi Prasetijo, Joewono Rifai, Andri I.