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All Journal TAMIKA: Jurnal Tugas Akhir Manajemen Informatika & Komputerisasi Akuntansi
Sarkis S., Indra M.
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Prediksi Harga Cabe Rawit di Wilayah Provinsi Sumatera Utara dengan Metode Simple Exponential Smoothing Gracetira, Naomi; Simamora, Vony Melinda; Margareta, Nokia; Anata P., Josua Pedro; Lingga, Joy Syahputra; Ginting, Kevin Ginsigel; Sarkis S., Indra M.
TAMIKA: Jurnal Tugas Akhir Manajemen Informatika & Komputerisasi Akuntansi Vol 4 No 2(SEMNASTIK) (2024): TAMIKA: Jurnal Tugas Akhir Manajemen Informatika & Komputerisasi Akunt
Publisher : Universitas Methodist Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46880/tamika.Vol4No2(SEMNASTIK).pp73-77

Abstract

This study aims to predict the price of cayenne pepper in North Sumatra Province using the Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) method with α = 0.2. The data used includes the price trend of cayenne pepper from January to July 2024, taken from Databoks and supported by BAPANAS (Badan Pangan Nasional). The analysis results show that the SES method can capture the upward trend in the price of cayenne pepper with a relatively high level of accuracy, indicated by the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value of 7.34%. The predicted average price of cayenne pepper on July 15, 2024 is estimated to reach Rp. 47,555.34. These findings suggest that the SES method is reliable for planning and decision-making regarding the price of cayenne pepper, although it is more sensitive to recent data. This research makes an important contribution to the government, farmers, and traders in dealing with fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices.
Prediksi Harga Cabe Rawit di Wilayah Provinsi Sumatera Utara dengan Metode Simple Exponential Smoothing Gracetira, Naomi; Simamora, Vony Melinda; Margareta, Nokia; Anata P., Josua Pedro; Lingga, Joy Syahputra; Ginting, Kevin Ginsigel; Sarkis S., Indra M.
TAMIKA: Jurnal Tugas Akhir Manajemen Informatika & Komputerisasi Akuntansi Vol 4 No 2(SEMNASTIK) (2024): TAMIKA: Jurnal Tugas Akhir Manajemen Informatika & Komputerisasi Akunt
Publisher : Universitas Methodist Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46880/tamika.Vol4No2(SEMNASTIK).pp73-77

Abstract

This study aims to predict the price of cayenne pepper in North Sumatra Province using the Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) method with α = 0.2. The data used includes the price trend of cayenne pepper from January to July 2024, taken from Databoks and supported by BAPANAS (Badan Pangan Nasional). The analysis results show that the SES method can capture the upward trend in the price of cayenne pepper with a relatively high level of accuracy, indicated by the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value of 7.34%. The predicted average price of cayenne pepper on July 15, 2024 is estimated to reach Rp. 47,555.34. These findings suggest that the SES method is reliable for planning and decision-making regarding the price of cayenne pepper, although it is more sensitive to recent data. This research makes an important contribution to the government, farmers, and traders in dealing with fluctuations in agricultural commodity prices.
Prediksi Konsumsi Rokok di Indonesia dengan Single Exponential Smooting Lumbantoruan, Dina Sonia; Gultom, Maria Oktaviani; Lumbantoruan, Egita Fanie; Sigalingging, Diana Muthiah; Angelica, Ella; Simbolon, Theresia Jesika; Sarkis S., Indra M.
TAMIKA: Jurnal Tugas Akhir Manajemen Informatika & Komputerisasi Akuntansi Vol 4 No 2(SEMNASTIK) (2024): TAMIKA: Jurnal Tugas Akhir Manajemen Informatika & Komputerisasi Akunt
Publisher : Universitas Methodist Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46880/tamika.Vol4No2(SEMNASTIK).pp122-128

Abstract

This study predicts cigarette consumption per capita in Medan City using the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) model. The problem faced is the fluctuation and increasing trend of cigarette consumption which requires accurate prediction. The SES model was chosen due to its ability to capture historical data and produce accurate forecasts. To test the accuracy of the model, three prediction error indicators were used, namely Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of the analysis show that the SES model has low MSE, MAD, and MAPE values, which indicates a high level of accuracy. For the type of filter clove cigarettes, the MAPE value is 9.43%, for clove cigarettes without filter, the MAPE value is 27.77%, white cigarettes MAPE value is 27.73%, tobacco MAPE value is 38.13% and for other types of cigarettes and tobacco 33.20% where the accuracy results are good. The predictions generated by this model show an increasing trend of consumption in Medan City. These predictions provide important insights for policymakers in designing cigarette consumption control. This study thus confirms the effectiveness of the SES model in predicting per capita cigarette consumption in Indonesia. It makes a significant contribution to the literature on tobacco product consumption prediction.
Analisis Perkiraan Jumlah Pegawai Negeri Sipil di Kota Medan Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Br. Purba, Riska Maria; Aritonang, Desriana; Purba, Grace Theodora Valentina; Hutauruk, Kevin Yohanes; Sitanggang, Stevanus Hendy; Sarkis S., Indra M.
TAMIKA: Jurnal Tugas Akhir Manajemen Informatika & Komputerisasi Akuntansi Vol 4 No 2(SEMNASTIK) (2024): TAMIKA: Jurnal Tugas Akhir Manajemen Informatika & Komputerisasi Akunt
Publisher : Universitas Methodist Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46880/tamika.Vol4No2(SEMNASTIK).pp149-154

Abstract

The number of civil servants is a crucial factor in determining budget allocation, human resource planning and the provision of public services. In Medan City, the number of civil servants has decreased from year to year based on data from the North Sumatra Province Central Statistics Agency. The uncertainty of the number of civil servants from year to year makes forecasting the number of civil servants a challenging task and requires appropriate analytical methods. Therefore, an analysis of the estimated number of civil servants is needed to determine the right policy. One method that can be used is Single Exponential Smoothing (SES). Based on the results of testing predictions for the number of civil servants in the city of Medan for the 2023 period using alpha SES of α0.1, α0.3, α0.5, α0.7 and α0.9, it was found that using alpha 0.7 gave prediction results with a Mean Square Error value the smallest is 26515890 and the predicted number of civil servants is 11867 people in 2023. The prediction results can be used by local governments to plan human resource needs, including recruitment, training or development of civil servants according to future needs.
Co-Authors Anata P., Josua Pedro Angelica, Ella Aritonang, Desriana Br. Purba, Riska Maria Ginting, Kevin Ginsigel Gracetira, Naomi Gultom, Maria Oktaviani Hutauruk, Kevin Yohanes Lingga, Joy Syahputra Lumbantoruan, Dina Sonia Lumbantoruan, Egita Fanie Margareta, Nokia Purba, Grace Theodora Valentina Sigalingging, Diana Muthiah Simamora, Vony Melinda Simbolon, Theresia Jesika Sitanggang, Stevanus Hendy