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All Journal Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika
Nabillah, Faradiba
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Education Mathematics

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PERAMALAN EKSPOR TIGA KOMODITAS UTAMA SEKTOR PERIKANAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE TIME SERIES: ARIMA Nabillah, Faradiba; Munir, Zainul; Permatasari, Ririt Dwiputri; Anggraeni, Andini Setyo; Safitriyana, Safitriyana
Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 5 No. 2 (2024): Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistik
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/lb.v5i2.593

Abstract

Batam City is one of the cities in Indonesia which is located in a strategic area on international shipping routes and has a sea area of 3,675 km so it has great potential for exporting fishery products, based on main commodities. Based on data from the Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries (KKP) in 2022, the performance of the export value of Indonesian fishery products during 2022 experienced positive growth of 21.63 percent compared to 2021. In 2021, the export value of Indonesian fishery products reached 1,258 million USD, increasing to 1,530 million USD in 2022. This fact shows that the marine fisheries sector still offers significant opportunities today. However, there are several obstacles that stand in the way of the export process. These obstacles include the low level of technology application, unequal infrastructure development in various fisheries centers, limitations in providing capital, low utilization of Indonesia's marine potential, and the use of fishing systems in the production process which are deemed unable to utilize Indonesia's marine potential optimally. Given this problem, it is interesting to see the forecast for fishery product exports according to the main commodities in the city of Batam. Is there an increase or a decrease? So the aim of this research is to describe the predicted results of the export value of fishery products according to 3 main commodities, namely shellfish, crab and shrimp in Batam City in the next 5 years. This research method is quantitative using the time series method: ARIMA. The research results show that the estimated export of shellfish and crab will decrease from 2023 - 2027. Meanwhile, the estimated export of shrimp will increase from 2023 - 2027
FORECASTING EKSPOR RUMPUT LAUT MENGGUNAKAN ANALISIS TREND Nabillah, Faradiba; Hazimah, Hazimah; Reza, Widya; Wahyu Aranski, Alvendo; Dwiakila Ramadhan , Achiles
Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika Vol. 5 No. 3 (2024): Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistik
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Bina Bangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46306/lb.v5i3.772

Abstract

Batam City is located in the Riau Islands Province, Indonesia, known as a strategic free trade area with rapidly growing industrial, trade, maritime and fisheries sectors, especially seaweed cultivation. Seaweed has high economic value and global demand, used as food and raw materials for the cosmetics, pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries. Batam's ideal geographical conditions support the growth of seaweed, with the support of local government policies and cultivation technology. However, challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, limited access to technology must be overcome to increase exports. On the other hand, competition with other neighboring seaweed countries such as Singapore, Vietnam and Thailand is also a challenge. These countries have already developed their seaweed industries well, including in terms of technology, product quality and international marketing networks. Batam needs to adopt innovative and efficient strategies and international cooperation to optimize this potential. With these problems, it is interesting to see the seaweed export forecast in Batam City. Is there an increase or decrease? So the purpose of this study is to describe the best model used in predicting seaweed export volume and describe the results of seaweed export volume predictions in Batam City in 2024 - 2025. The research method is quantitative using Trend analysis. The results of the study show that the best model used is the Quadratic trend model because it has the smallest MAPE, MAD and MSE values ​​compared to other models. Meanwhile, the results of seaweed export forecasts from Batam City continue to experience a significant increase in 2024 - 2025.
Co-Authors Anggraeni, Andini Setyo Dwiakila Ramadhan , Achiles Hazimah, Hazimah munir, Zainul Munir Ririt Dwiputri Permatasari Safitriyana, Safitriyana Wahyu Aranski, Alvendo Widya Reza