Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2020 - 2025
0.23
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal EKSAKTA: Journal of Sciences and Data Analysis
Abdul Ghufron
Unknown Affiliation
Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Earth & Planetary Sciences Materials Science & Nanotechnology

Published : 1 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 1 Documents
Search

 1 
Forecasting Hotel Occupancy Rates in Bali Province using the SARIMAX Method with Tourist Data as an Exogenous Variable Ihsan Fathoni Amri; Arya, Abimanyu; Yolan Triky; Kaia Raissa Akmalia; Abdul Ghufron; M. Al Haris
EKSAKTA: Journal of Sciences and Data Analysis VOLUME 5, ISSUE 2, October 2024
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/EKSAKTA.vol5.iss2.art2

Abstract

Tourism is a crucial economic sector in Bali, Indonesia. Sustainable tourism management requires an understanding of the dynamics between tourist numbers and hotel occupancy levels. This study uses the SARIMAX (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) method to estimate between the two indicators and reveals a positive correlation between the two indicators. The SARIMAX model effectively captures seasonal patterns and external factors, providing accurate forecasts and supporting tourism management in Bali. Monthly data from 2010 to 2023 were analyzed. Accurate estimates can help tourism stakeholders in formulating appropriate management strategies to optimize the tourism sector. Implementing the right strategy can help ensure the preservation of the local environment and culture, as well as long-term economic benefits for Bali. From the data we use the SARIMAX (6,1,0) (1,1,0)12 model with an AIC value of 1920.553 and a MAPE value of 27%.
Co-Authors Arya, Abimanyu Ihsan Fathoni Amri Kaia Raissa Akmalia M. Al Haris Yolan Triky