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All Journal International Journal of Multidisciplinary Approach Research and Science Journal of Business Management and Economic Development Pancasila International Journal of Applied Social Science
Obuareghe, Goddey
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Macroeconomic Determinants of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Nigeria Obuareghe, Goddey; Orubu, Christopher O.; Awogbemi, Titus O.
Journal of Business Management and Economic Development Том 3 № 01 (2025): January 2025
Publisher : PT. Riset Press International

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59653/jbmed.v3i01.1191

Abstract

The study examined Nigeria's macroeconomic determinants of exchange rate dynamics over thirty-seven years, from 1986 to 2022. The major data sources are the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, World Bank Development Indicator, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the U.S Federal Reserve Bank, and other relevant literature. The study adopted the structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) estimate to test the responses of exchange rates. Other estimation techniques considered are Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition Test. The study reported that past exchange rate (EXCR) values respond positively to an increase in innovation shock, and the response is statistically significant up to the second horizon. More so, past values of broad money supply and changes in crude oil prices positively impact the exchange rate. However, the study affirmed that past government capital expenditure and trade openness values are statistically insignificant but positively impact the exchange rate. Again, exchange rates respond speedily to changes in broad money supply, government expenditure, oil price fluctuation, degree of trade openness, and inflation rate. Hence, the study concludes that past values of broad money supply, government capital expenditure, changes in crude prices, and inflation rates are major macroeconomic determinants of the exchange rate in Nigeria. As such, the study submits that policymakers are to pay close attention to the rising rate at which more money is outside the shores of the Nigerian banking industry. Lastly, more federal government expenditures should be allocated to capital expenditure.
Cyclical Crude Oil Price Movements and the Nigerian Growth Dynamics: An Empirical Approach Obuareghe, Goddey; Orubu, Christopher, O.; Awogbemi, Titus, O.
Pancasila International Journal of Applied Social Science Том 3 № 01 (2025): Pancasila International Journal of Applied Social Science
Publisher : PT. Riset Press International

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59653/pancasila.v3i01.1390

Abstract

The paper examined the effect of cyclical crude oil price movements on the Nigerian economic dynamics, emphasizing empirics. The study spanned from 1989 to 2021. This is in view of evaluating how cyclical oil, petrol, diesel, and kerosene price movements impact real gross domestic products in Nigeria. Data for the analysis were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Bulletin and the World Bank database from 1989 to 2021, i.e. 33 years. The data analysis methods adopted are the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and Vector Auto-regressive models. The study evidenced that cyclical movements in oil and diesel prices significantly reduce Nigeria's economic growth. In contrast, cyclical movements of petrol and Kerosene prices minimally improve the Nigerian economy's growth. Hence, the study concludes that cyclical movements in oil and diesel prices counter-productive to the Nigerian economy. Consequently, the Nigerian government should ensure that proceeds from oil products should be channelled to priority sectors of the Nigerian economy. Lastly, the ongoing debates on the diversification of the Nigerian economy need to be re-evaluated.   
Economic Policy Choices and Economic Growth of Nigeria: Lessons from the Asian Pacific Obuareghe, Goddey; Dike, Jude
International Journal of Multidisciplinary Approach Research and Science Том 3 № 01 (2025): International Journal of Multidisciplinary Approach Research and Science
Publisher : PT. Riset Press International

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59653/ijmars.v3i01.1405

Abstract

This study examined the effect of economic policy choices on the growth of Nigeria with specific reference to the Asian Pacific from 1994 to 2022 (i.e. 29 years). Specifically, the study covered three (3) variables. The three economic policy variables are broad money supply, total trade and government revenue. The three economic policy variables accounted for monetary, trade and fiscal policy measures. Meanwhile, the economic growth proxy is considered to be real gross domestic product (RGDP). Data were retrieved from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2022. The robust regression analysis was suitable for the study. The study confirmed that the broad money supply negatively affects economic growth. However, total trade and government revenue positively affected economic growth. Overall, the study concludes that economic policy choices have a mixed effect on the growth of the Nigerian economy. As such, the Nigerian government should use its monetary policy tools to curb excess cash from circulation. Further, efforts should be made to reduce some trade barriers that mitigate successful trading in Nigeria. Lastly, the Nigerian government should reappraise the country's current trade policies, as this may be the main reason the Nigerian economy is still underdeveloped.
Fuel Subsidy Imbroglio and Economic Prosperity of Nigeria: A Dynamic Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (DARDL) Approach Dike, Jude Okechukwu; Obuareghe, Goddey; Eriemo, Nathaniel Oke
Journal of Business Management and Economic Development Том 3 № 01 (2025): January 2025
Publisher : PT. Riset Press International

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59653/jbmed.v3i01.1422

Abstract

This study evaluates the impact of fuel subsidy imbroglio on Nigeria's economic prosperity, covering the period from 1986 to 2022. In investigating the effect of oil subsidy on the economic prosperity of Nigeria, it uses RGDP as the regressed while the regressors are Subsidy Payment (SY). Additionally, Oil rent (RO), Exchange Rate (ER) and institutional variables such as Political stability (PS) and Control of Corruption (CO) served as control variables. To mediate the effect of subsidy, the institution of regulation was applied to moderate the nexus between subsidy payment and economic prosperity in Nigeria (SY*RQ). Data were obtained from secondary sources such as The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, the World Bank Development Index (WDI) and United States Energy Information Administration (USEIA). The dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (DARDL) model estimator tool was deployed for data analysis. The short-run result shows the magnitude of change in economic prosperity orchestrated by political stability. Also, corruption control was effective in the short run and encouraged economic prosperity. At the same time, oil subsidies harmed the country's economic prosperity; as the short-run coefficient implied, the effort to control subsidies directly using the institution of regulation (RQ) failed. Further, the normalized ARDL long-run test shows that the payment of oil subsidies has a minimal impact on economic prosperity in Nigeria. Similarly, when oil subsidy payment is subjected to regulations, its impact is still minimal. Notwithstanding, PS and LEX significantly promote economic prosperity in Nigeria. Based on the findings, the study recommends and supports the removal of fuel subsidies and that the proceeds should be re-invested in providing critical amenities and infrastructure to grow the Nigerian economy.
Co-Authors Awogbemi, Titus O. Awogbemi, Titus, O. Dike, Jude Dike, Jude Okechukwu Eriemo, Nathaniel Oke Orubu, Christopher O. Orubu, Christopher, O.