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All Journal International Journal of Multidisciplinary Approach Research and Science Journal of Business Management and Economic Development Pancasila International Journal of Applied Social Science
Obuareghe, Goddey
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Journal : Journal of Business Management and Economic Development

 1 
Macroeconomic Determinants of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Nigeria Obuareghe, Goddey; Orubu, Christopher O.; Awogbemi, Titus O.
Journal of Business Management and Economic Development Том 3 № 01 (2025): Journal of Business Management and Economic Development
Publisher : PT. Riset Press International

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59653/jbmed.v3i01.1191

Abstract

The study examined Nigeria's macroeconomic determinants of exchange rate dynamics over thirty-seven years, from 1986 to 2022. The major data sources are the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, World Bank Development Indicator, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the U.S Federal Reserve Bank, and other relevant literature. The study adopted the structural Vector Autoregressive (VAR) estimate to test the responses of exchange rates. Other estimation techniques considered are Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition Test. The study reported that past exchange rate (EXCR) values respond positively to an increase in innovation shock, and the response is statistically significant up to the second horizon. More so, past values of broad money supply and changes in crude oil prices positively impact the exchange rate. However, the study affirmed that past government capital expenditure and trade openness values are statistically insignificant but positively impact the exchange rate. Again, exchange rates respond speedily to changes in broad money supply, government expenditure, oil price fluctuation, degree of trade openness, and inflation rate. Hence, the study concludes that past values of broad money supply, government capital expenditure, changes in crude prices, and inflation rates are major macroeconomic determinants of the exchange rate in Nigeria. As such, the study submits that policymakers are to pay close attention to the rising rate at which more money is outside the shores of the Nigerian banking industry. Lastly, more federal government expenditures should be allocated to capital expenditure.
Fuel Subsidy Imbroglio and Economic Prosperity of Nigeria: A Dynamic Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (DARDL) Approach Dike, Jude Okechukwu; Obuareghe, Goddey; Eriemo, Nathaniel Oke
Journal of Business Management and Economic Development Том 3 № 01 (2025): Journal of Business Management and Economic Development
Publisher : PT. Riset Press International

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59653/jbmed.v3i01.1422

Abstract

This study evaluates the impact of fuel subsidy imbroglio on Nigeria's economic prosperity, covering the period from 1986 to 2022. In investigating the effect of oil subsidy on the economic prosperity of Nigeria, it uses RGDP as the regressed while the regressors are Subsidy Payment (SY). Additionally, Oil rent (RO), Exchange Rate (ER) and institutional variables such as Political stability (PS) and Control of Corruption (CO) served as control variables. To mediate the effect of subsidy, the institution of regulation was applied to moderate the nexus between subsidy payment and economic prosperity in Nigeria (SY*RQ). Data were obtained from secondary sources such as The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin, the World Bank Development Index (WDI) and United States Energy Information Administration (USEIA). The dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (DARDL) model estimator tool was deployed for data analysis. The short-run result shows the magnitude of change in economic prosperity orchestrated by political stability. Also, corruption control was effective in the short run and encouraged economic prosperity. At the same time, oil subsidies harmed the country's economic prosperity; as the short-run coefficient implied, the effort to control subsidies directly using the institution of regulation (RQ) failed. Further, the normalized ARDL long-run test shows that the payment of oil subsidies has a minimal impact on economic prosperity in Nigeria. Similarly, when oil subsidy payment is subjected to regulations, its impact is still minimal. Notwithstanding, PS and LEX significantly promote economic prosperity in Nigeria. Based on the findings, the study recommends and supports the removal of fuel subsidies and that the proceeds should be re-invested in providing critical amenities and infrastructure to grow the Nigerian economy.
Co-Authors Awogbemi, Titus O. Awogbemi, Titus, O. Dike, Jude Dike, Jude Okechukwu Eriemo, Nathaniel Oke Orubu, Christopher O. Orubu, Christopher, O.