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All Journal EQIEN - JURNAL EKONOMI DAN BISNIS Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Ismail, Ghaffar
Unknown Affiliation
Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Penerapan Analisis Klaster dan Prediksi Indeks Pembangunan Manusia untuk Mengevaluasi Kualitas Hidup Manusia dalam Pembangunan Nasional Ismail, Ghaffar
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2111

Abstract

This study evaluates the development of human quality through cluster analysis based on the HDI to achieve the vision of "Golden Indonesia 2045". The purpose of this research is to classify of regencies/cities based on health, education, and standard of living indicators, so that these regions can effectively address their deficient indicators. Using various machine learning methods, AGNES was selected as the best method. The regencies/cities were grouped into four clusters: low, medium, high, and very high. The results show that 244 regencies/cities are in the medium cluster, 188 in the high cluster, 68 in the very high cluster, and 14 in the low cluster. Regencies/cities with low and medium HDI require improvement all aspects, while the high cluster needs to focus on education. Strategic policies in health, education, and decent living standards are essential to enhance quality of life and achieve equitable national development.
The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Tourist Visits in Indonesia: GARCH Analysis Hafiz, Muhammad Sultan; Ismail, Ghaffar; Wilda, Marchadha Santi; Kartiasih, Fitri
Eqien - Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol 13 No 03 (2024): Eqien Journal Of Economics and Business
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Islam DR KH EZ Mutaqien

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34308/eqien.v13i03.1698

Abstract

In this era of globalization, currency exchange rates are one of the crucial factors affecting a country's economy. The exchange rate of a country's currency plays an important role in economic stability and international trade, especially in the tourism sector. This study aims to conduct an in-depth analysis to identify patterns of rupiah exchange rate volatility using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, and then examine whether these patterns have a significant correlation with the number of foreign tourist arrivals in Indonesia. In analyzing the data, researchers conducted several classical assumption tests, namely the normality test and the heteroscedasticity test. The test results show that the data used, namely the rupiah exchange rate data and the number of foreign tourist visits, are not normally distributed and heteroscedastic. In this case, it resulted in researchers not use the Pearson correlation test so they used the Kendall-Tau correlation test and Granger Causality test which resulted in the two variables being correlated. Furthermore, GARCH modeling is carried out which provides forecasting on both data to increase in 2024. The results of this study are expected to provide a basis for consideration for stakeholders to determine policies, especially in the financial and tourism sectors.
Co-Authors Fitri Kartiasih Hafiz, Muhammad Sultan Wilda, Marchadha Santi