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Nabilah, Yasmin Nur Alya
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Simulasi Dampak Kebijakan Moneter terhadap Perekonomian dan Emisi CO2 Per Kapita di Indonesia Ningrum, Icha Wahyu Kusuma; Agustini, Peni; Nabilah, Yasmin Nur Alya
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2024 No 1 (2024): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2024
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2024i1.2247

Abstract

In running an economy, energy is needed as an input for the production process. However, energy needs are still dominated by energy from fossils that produce CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions can cause global climate change where the United Nations (UN) is struggling to combat climate change and its impacts through the 13th Sustainable Development Goals. This study aims to examine the simultaneous relationship between gross domestic product, CO2 emissions, and gross fixed capital formation in Indonesia and the variables that influence the three indicators using a simultaneous equation model with the two stage least squares (2SLS) method. In addition, a simulation will be carried out when an intervention is made on monetary policy against the three indicators. As a result, the scenario that can improve the economy and CO₂ emissions per capita is by lowering interest rates. While the scenario that can reduce the economy and CO2 emissions per capita is by raising interest rates.
Dampak Guncangan Indikator Sosial-Ekonomi terhadap Migrasi Neto di Indonesia Tahun 1991-2023: Pendekatan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Sarwosih, Arifa Tri; Pratama, Muhammad Zacky Arie; Nabilah, Yasmin Nur Alya; Kartiasih, Fitri
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2501

Abstract

Migration plays an important role in shaping socio-economic dynamics across provinces in Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the impact of shocks in socio-economic indicators—namely the Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) and inflation—on net migration during the period 1990–2022. Annual data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) is analyzed using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach. The results show that net migration responds dynamically to socio-economic shocks, with system stability reached around the 30th year. Shocks to the unemployment rate have a more dominant long-term impact compared to inflation. The Variance Decomposition Analysis (VDA) confirms the relatively greater contribution of OUR to the variability of net migration. These findings support the push-pull theory of migration and fill a gap in national-level empirical studies. Policymakers need to design adaptive responses to shocks in unemployment and inflation to reduce migration pressures and promote balanced regional development.
Co-Authors Agustini, Peni Fitri Kartiasih Ningrum, Icha Wahyu Kusuma Pratama, Muhammad Zacky Arie Sarwosih, Arifa Tri