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All Journal Jurnal Kesehatan ASPIRATOR - Journal of Vector-Borne Diseases Studies
Lutfianawati, Ridha Fajar
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Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Environmental Science Health Professions Immunology & microbiology Medicine & Pharmacology Nursing Public Health Social Sciences

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Pengaruh Faktor Iklim, ABJ Terhadap Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue Menggunakan Analisis Regresi Lutfianawati, Ridha Fajar; marlik, Marlik; Ngadino, Ngadino; Nurmayanti, Demes; Sulistio, Irwan
Jurnal Kesehatan Vol. 17 No. 2 (2024): Jurnal Kesehatan
Publisher : UPPM Poltekkes Kemenkes Ternate

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32763/kzytms14

Abstract

Background: Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever or dengue is a health problem in Indonesia. Papar District of Kediri Regency is included in the area with the highest number of dengue cases. Purpose: knowing the climatic factors (rainfall, temperature, humidity) and ABJ that affect the incidence of DBD. Methods: This type of research is quantitative with retrospective methods. Research data is secondary data. The object of the study is climate factors, ABJ and dbd cases in 2016-2021 in Kediri Regency. Analyze data using linear regression. Results: The results of the correlation test are related between humidity, temperature, rainfall and ABJ with DBD, namely -0.273 (P = 0.029), 0.332 (P = 0.007), 0.286 (P = 0.022) and (P = 0.276). The form of regression equation is DBD = 78.1 + 0.01787 Rainfall + 0.986 Humidity with an R2 value of 22.53%. Conclusion: There is a significant relationship between DBD and Climate Factors (humidity, temperature, rainfall), there is no relationship of DBD with ABJ. Regression equations can be used to prepare for DHF prevention and control measures in the future.
Prediksi Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue di Kecamatan Papar Kabupaten Kediri Tahun 2016–2021: Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Papar District Kediri Regency 2016–2021 Lutfianawati, Ridha Fajar; Ngadino; Marlik
Aspirator Vol 14 No 1 (2022): Jurnal Aspirator Volume 14 Nomor 1 2022
Publisher : Perkumpulan Entomologi Kesehatan Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22435/asp.v14i1.5892

Abstract

Abstract. Dengue hemorrhagic fever is still a health problem in Indonesia. Papar District, Kediri Regency is one of the areas with the highest dengue cases in East Java. The purpose of this study was to find a predictive model for the incidence of DHF in the Papar District, Kediri Regency, East Java. The research conducted is an applied research in the form of secondary data analysis using DHF data from 2016 to 2021. Data analysis is carried out using the time series analysis. The model of DHF incidence in Papar District, Kediri Regency is ARIMA (1, 0, 0) with an equation form 1 0.9974 t t t Y Y α − = + which means the value of DHF data at time t is influenced by DHF data at time t-1 with a psi coefficient (ϕ) of 0.9974. The MSE value in the prediction is 28.41. The results of our analysis show that the prediction of dengue cases from May 2021 to December 2022 increases by 1-2 cases. Abstrak. Demam berdarah dengue masih menjadi masalah kesehatan di Indonesia. Kecamatan Papar, Kabupaten Kediri termasuk daerah dengan kasus DBD tertinggi di Jawa Timur. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk menemukan model prediksi kejadian DBD di wilayah Kecamatan Papar Kabupaten Kediri Jawa Timur. Penelitian yang dilakukan merupakan penelitian terapan berupa analisis data sekunder menggunakan data DBD dari tahun 2016 sampai dengan tahun 2021. Analisis data yang dilakukan menggunakan analisis time series. Model kejadian DBD di Kecamatan Papar Kabupaten Kediri adalah ARIMA (1, 0, 0) dengan bentuk persamaan 1 0.9974 t t t Y Y α − = + yang artinya nilai data DBD waktu ke-t dipengaruhi oleh data DBD waktu ke-t-1 dengan koefisien psi (ϕ) sebesar 0,9974. Adapun nilai MSE pada prediksi adalah 28,41. Hasil analisis kami menunjukkan bahwa prediksi kasus DBD dari Mei 2021 hingga Desember 2022 meningkat 1–2 kasus.
Co-Authors Demes Nurmayanti Marlik Ngadino Ngadino, Ngadino Ngadino, Ngadino Sulistio, Irwan