Muhammad Irfan Islami
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A Comparative Analysis of Global Stock Index Volatility Risks Before and During the Covid-19 Pandemic Permatasari, Ayu Indah; Muhammad Irfan Islami
Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/csefb.2025.04.1.17

Abstract

This research is motivated by the phenomenon of the Covid-19 pandemic. In recent years, the Covid-19 pandemic has caused a shock to the stock market. As a result, there is a significant difference in the stock index before or during the Covid-19 pandemic. Stock indices are important indicators to measure stock market fluctuations so that they can be taken into consideration for investor decision making. This study uses global stock indices, namely the United States stock index (S&P 500 and Nasdaq), Japan stock index (Nikkei 225), China stock index (SSE), Hong Kong stock index (Hang Seng), Germany stock index (Dax 30), and European stock index (Euronext). That is because the seven stock indices are the indices with the largest market capitalization in the world. This research is a quantitative research. This research uses time series data, which is data accumulated over time on an object in order to describe the development of the object. In this study, the type of data used is secondary data in the form of historical stock index data. Then the researchers conducted the Garch Test to determine the volatility risk of the entire stock index in the period before and during Covid-19.   Abstrak Penelitian ini  dilatarbelakangi oleh fenomena pandemi Covid-19. Dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, pandemi Covid-19 menyebabkan guncangan pada pasar saham. Imbasnya, terjadi perbedaan signifikan pada indeks saham sebelum atau saat pandemi Covid-19. Indeks saham adalah indikator penting untuk mengukur fluktuasi pasar saham sehingga dapat menjadi bahan pertimbangan guna pengambilan keputusan investor. Penelitian ini menggunakan indeks saham global yaitu indeks saham Amerika Serikat (S&P 500 dan Nasdaq), indeks saham Jepang (Nikkei 225), indeks saham China (SSE), indeks saham Hong Kong (Hang Seng), indeks saham Jerman (Dax 30), dan indeks saham Eropa (Euronext). Itu karena ketujuh indeks saham tersebut merupakan indeks dengan kapitalisasi pasar terbesar di dunia. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian kuantitatif. Penelitian ini menggunakan data time series, yakni data yang diakumulasikan dari waktu ke waktu pada suatu objek guna mendeskripsikan perkembangan objek. Dalam penelitian ini jenis data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder berupa data historis indeks saham. Kemudian peneliti melakukan Uji Garch guna mengetahui risiko volatilitas dari seluruh indeks.
Capital Market Reaction to the Announcement of the 2021 DTP PPNBM Incentive Policy Salsabila; Muhammad Irfan Islami
Contemporary Studies in Economic, Finance and Banking Vol. 5 No. 3 (2026)
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

The effectiveness of fiscal incentive policies depends on the speed with which the market responds to public information. In a semi-strong efficient market, security prices should only react after the information is officially released to all market participants. However, if abnormal price and volume movements are detected before the announcement date, this indicates information asymmetry that can disrupt market integrity and undermine investor confidence. To verify the existence of this phenomenon on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, this study aims to examine the semi-strong efficiency of the Indonesian capital market in response to the announcement of the PPnBM DTP incentive policy on February 11, 2021. Using an event study approach, market reaction is measured using the cumulative average abnormal return and cumulative average trading volume variables in three main periods: before, during, and after the announcement. This research is a quantitative research using secondary data in the form of closing price data, daily trading volume and the number of outstanding shares of all issuers included in the automotive component sub-sector and the automotive retail sub-industry on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period of August 25, 2020 to March 1, 2021. The results of the study indicate that the Indonesian capital market is inefficient in a semi-strong form for the information context of the announcement of the 2021 PPnBM DTP incentive policy, evidenced by the presence of a significant CAAR in the period before the policy announcement.