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All Journal Jurnal Teknik Pertanian Lampung (Journal of Agricultural Engineering) Cerdika: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia
I Putu Hartawan
Institut Teknologi Bandung
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Health Professions Public Health Social Sciences

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Koreksi Bias Data Hujan Proyeksi Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (Cmip6) Di Kota Bima I Putu Hartawan; Muhamad Zaky Ibnu Malik; Laifhan Setyo Qhairaan; Ken Wiralino; Irfani Zahira Rustiawan; Dimas Harya Wisanggeni
Cerdika: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025): Cerdika: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia
Publisher : Publikasi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59141/cerdika.v5i1.2438

Abstract

Perubahan iklim global telah memengaruhi pola curah hujan, khususnya di wilayah tropis, termasuk Kota Bima. Model proyeksi iklim seperti Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) menyediakan data penting untuk memprediksi perubahan iklim, namun sering kali mengandung bias yang signifikan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan koreksi bias pada data proyeksi curah hujan CMIP6 menggunakan lima model dalam skenario SSP5-8.5, yaitu CMCC-CM2-SR5, CESM2-WACCM, ACCESS-CM2, CESM2, dan AWI-CM-1-1-MR, dengan mengintegrasikan data historis dari Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) dan data lokal dari BMKG. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa data historis GPCC memiliki korelasi yang sangat kuat dengan data BMKG, dengan nilai koefisien korelasi sebesar 0,97 dan RMSE sebesar 34,41 mm. Hasil koreksi bias data proyeksi menunjukkan bahwa empat model (CESM2-WACCM, ACCESS-CM2, CESM2, dan AWI-CM-1-1-MR) memiliki pola tren yang serupa berdasarkan analisis Weibull plotting. Sementara itu, model CMCC-CM2-SR5 menunjukkan penyimpangan pola yang signifikan. Implikasi penelitian ini adalah meningkatkan akurasi proyeksi curah hujan untuk mendukung perencanaan mitigasi risiko bencana dan pengelolaan sumber daya air di Kota Bima. Penelitian ini juga membuka peluang untuk pengembangan metode koreksi bias yang lebih efisien dengan mengintegrasikan teknologi pembelajaran mesin dan data lokal yang lebih rinci.
Flood Discharge Modeling through Hydrological Parameter Calibration Using HEC-HMS in the Lower Air Bengkulu River Ekanto Wahyudi Susetyo; Hadi Kardhana; I Putu Hartawan; Firmana Siddik; Hadi Buana
Jurnal Teknik Pertanian Lampung (Journal of Agricultural Engineering) Vol. 15 No. 2 (2026): April 2026
Publisher : The University of Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23960/jtepl.v15i2.627-638

Abstract

The Air Bengkulu River experiences flooding at least twice a year due to increased discharge during the rainy season. This study aims to calibrate hydrological model parameters based on daily rainfall data for the flood event of 30 August 2022 using HEC-HMS modeling to obtain a best design for flood discharge. Calibration was conducted by simulating the rainfall occurred during the flood event to reproduce the observed discharge recorded at the gauging station, using the SCS-Curve Number (SCS-CN) loss method and the Snyder transform method in HEC-HMS 4.10. The parameters included the Peak Rate Factor (PRF) in the SCS loss scheme and the Ct and Cp coefficients in the Snyder method, while the CN and impervious values were determined based on land-use maps. The results indicated that both approaches produced relatively similar calibration outcomes; however, the Snyder method is better than the SCS-CN. The Snyder approach showed moderate performance with PBIAS = 0.34% (Very Good), RMSE = 0.7 (Satisfactory), and NSE = 0.509 (Good). It was, therefore, adopted for design flood discharge estimation with results Q2 = 277.9 m³/s, Q5 = 458.5 m³/s, Q10 = 585.9 m³/s, Q25 = 752.6 m³/s, and Q50 = 879.4 m³/s. The observed discharge during the 30 August 2022 flood event (478.55 m³/s) falls between the Q5 and Q10 return periods. Overall, the study demonstrates that parameter calibration plays a crucial role in improving hydrograph representation, although further evaluation using hourly data and multiple flood events is necessary to enhance model reliability.
Co-Authors Dimas Harya Wisanggeni Ekanto Wahyudi Susetyo Firmana Siddik Hadi Buana Hadi Kardhana Irfani Zahira Rustiawan Ken Wiralino Laifhan Setyo Qhairaan Muhamad Zaky Ibnu Malik