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All Journal Jurnal Riset Rumpun Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam (JURRIMIPA) Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika
Alya Dwi Lestari
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Education Health Professions Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Mathematics Social Sciences

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Penerapan Probabilitas dalam Sistem Skoring untuk Evaluasi Kelayakan Beasiswa Mahasiswa Prodi Matematika Universitas Negeri Medan Tahun 2022 Arnah Ritonga; Ellys Rebecca Simanjuntak; Keisya Amelia Putri; Nafasa Zahri; Mhd. Fachrizal; Alya Dwi Lestari; Arief Rachman
Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): Jurnal Arjuna : Publikasi Ilmu Pendidikan, Bahasa dan Matematika
Publisher : Asosiasi Riset Ilmu Pendidikan Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61132/arjuna.v3i2.1717

Abstract

This study aims to apply the concept of probability in the assessment system to assess students' eligibility to receive scholarships. By applying a probabilistic approach, especially Bayes' Theorem, this study develops a more objective and data-based evaluation method. The method used is a quantitative approach with probabilistic analysis, allowing the calculation of students' chances of getting scholarships based on factors such as Cumulative Achievement Index (IPK) and Single Tuition Fee (UKT). The data analyzed includes primary data from students applying for scholarships as well as secondary data from historical records of previous scholarship acceptances. The results of the study show that GPA plays a significant role in increasing the chances of receiving a scholarship, where students with higher GPAs are more likely to be accepted. Conversely, students with high UKT tend to have lower chances, indicating that financial conditions are also a major factor in selection. This probability-based approach increases transparency and fairness in the selection system and reduces subjectivity in decision making. This study confirms that a probability-based scoring system can be a fairer and more accurate solution in assessing the eligibility of scholarship recipients. It is hoped that the results of this study can be a reference for educational institutions in developing a more data-based and objective selection system.
Analisis Laju Pertumbuhan Kota Pematang Siantar dengan Menggunakan Konsep Integral Tak Wajar pada Tahun 2024–2025 Suvriadi Panggabean; Petra Putri Sarinah Pandiangan; Mhd Fachrizal; Arief Rachman Pakpahan; Alya Dwi Lestari; Livia Mutianda; Lestari Novianti Sinurat
JURNAL RISET RUMPUN MATEMATIKA DAN ILMU PENGETAHUAN ALAM Vol. 4 No. 1 (2025): April : Jurnal Riset Rumpun Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam
Publisher : Pusat riset dan Inovasi Nasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jurrimipa.v4i1.4579

Abstract

In this study, the population growth rate of Pematang Siantar City during the period 2022–2025 is discussed through an improper integral approach. Population growth patterns must be analyzed and predicted in the long term. Linear, geometric, and exponential growth models are used to analyze data taken from the Statistics Center. The calculation results show that the population growth rate changes every year, with an average change of 0.10% per year. The prediction for 2025–2026 shows a growth of 0.59%, indicating an increase in population. However, through an improper integral approach, it is found that a population that experiences a decrease in growth rate over time will reach a limited cumulative total population value, even if the population continues to increase. These results indicate that a long-term downward trend can lead to population shrinkage, uncontrolled growth can lead to population density. As a result, this study is expected to provide a scientific basis for population policies and sustainable development planning in Pematang Siantar City.
Analisis Perbandingan Model Diskrit dan Kontinu dalam Prediksi Biaya Hidup Mahasiswa Selama Masa Studi Adinda Saputri; Arnah Ritonga; Alya Dwi Lestari; Kenjo Oktaviano Damanik; Riby Tamara
JURNAL RISET RUMPUN MATEMATIKA DAN ILMU PENGETAHUAN ALAM Vol. 4 No. 2 (2025): Agustus: Jurnal Riset Rumpun Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam
Publisher : Pusat riset dan Inovasi Nasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jurrimipa.v4i2.7018

Abstract

This study aims to compare the results of student living cost estimates over a four-year study period using two approaches in financial mathematics, namely the discrete model and the continuous model. The background of the study is based on the need for students to manage their personal finances effectively amidst rising living costs due to inflation. The discrete model is used to predict expenses at certain time intervals, while the continuous model assumes that changes in the value of money occur continuously at all times. This study uses a quantitative descriptive-comparative method with controlled simulations on 100 student data with variations in monthly living costs between Rp2,000,000–Rp4,000,000 and a random inflation rate of 0%–20%. The data were analyzed using discrete and continuous growth formulas, then a Paired Sample t-Test was performed to determine significant differences between the two models. The results show that both models produce very similar living cost estimates with an average difference of only about 1–3% of the total four-year costs. The continuous model produces slightly higher results than the discrete model due to its exponential and continuous nature of calculations. However, the statistical test results showed a p-value > 0.05, indicating no statistically significant difference between the two. Practically, both approaches can be used equally in student financial planning, with the discrete model being more appropriate for short-term projections and the continuous model being more appropriate for long-term projections.
Co-Authors Adinda Saputri Arief Rachman Arief Rachman Pakpahan Arnah Ritonga Ellys Rebecca Simanjuntak Keisya Amelia Putri Kenjo Oktaviano Damanik Lestari Novianti Sinurat Livia Mutianda Mhd Fachrizal Mhd. Fachrizal Nafasa Zahri Petra Putri Sarinah Pandiangan Riby Tamara Suvriadi Panggabean