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All Journal Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)
Vatin, Kayyis
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Mathematics

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Unveiling the Connection: The Impact of Poverty Rate on Human Development Index in the Special Region of Yogyakarta Province Using the Almon Lag Model Vatin, Kayyis; Kartikasari, Mujiati Dwi
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 01 (April 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i1.7348

Abstract

The Human Development Index (HDI) is established as one of the main indicators included in the fundamental framework of regional development. Ideally, HDI, which serves as a benchmark for regional development, has a negative correlation with poverty conditions. Historical poverty can influence the current HDI based on elements of health, education, and a decent standard of living. The Special Region of Yogyakarta is the province with the second-highest HDI in Indonesia but has had the highest poverty rate in Java in recent years. The Almon Lag Model can analyze the impact of poverty on HDI by considering the distributed lag effect. This study aims to analyze the impact of the poverty rate on HDI over the past twenty-seven years. Based on the analysis, the best model utilizes a lag length of three years and a polynomial degree of two. The model has a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.73%, indicating that the applied Almon Lag Model can make accurate predictions.
Co-Authors Kartikasari, Mujiati Dwi