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All Journal IJBE (Integrated Journal of Business and Economics) International Journal of Economics Development Research (IJEDR)
Ahmad, Abdullahi Idris
Unknown Affiliation
Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Empirical Analysis of The Impact of Public Debt on Macroeconomic Wafure, Obida Gomna; Musa, Ibrahim; Ahmad, Abdullahi Idris
International Journal of Economics Development Research (IJEDR) Vol. 6 No. 2 (2025): International Journal of Economics Development Research (IJEDR)
Publisher : Yayasan Riset dan Pengembangan Intelektual

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37385/ijedr.v6i2.3855

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of public debt on Nigeria's macroeconomic indicators, including real gross domestic product (RGDP), unemployment (UNEM), interest rate (INTR), and inflation rate (INFR), from 1980 to 2020. The study utilises the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach for cointegration, and the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bounds testing approach. The cointegration analysis reveals a notable symmetric and asymmetric cointegrating relationship, both in the long run, between public expenditure (both external and domestic) and the chosen macroeconomic variables. In addition, the ARDL model demonstrates that Domestic Debt (DD) raises national output but reduces UNEM and INFRs significantly in the long term. However, the results suggest that External Debt (ED) raises UNEM and INTR in the country in the long term. The NARDL model indicates that the positive component of DD raises national output. The study reveals that both domestic and ED have long-term effects on national output, with negative debt reducing UNEM and INTR, and positive ED reducing inflation. Given these results, the federal government should decrease excessive borrowings due to their detrimental impact on macroeconomic indicators in the short and long run. Generate more revenue through tax increment rather than borrowing, diversify the economy into areas like agriculture and mining rather than depending on oil and borrowing, and reduce the leakages (corruption) in the system through effective and efficient use of the anti-graft agencies in Nigeria.
Empirical Analysis of Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1990-2022) Musa, Ibrahim; Ahmad, Abdullahi Idris
Integrated Journal of Business and Economics (IJBE) Vol 8, No 1 (2024): Integrated Journal of Business and Economics
Publisher : Universitas Bangka Belitung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33019/ijbe.v8i1.826

Abstract

This study examines the effects of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria throughout 1990-2022. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound cointegration is employed to analyse both the short-term and long-term dynamics. The research incorporates various monetary policy instruments as variables, namely Broad Money Supply (MS), Interest Rate (INTR), Inflation Rate (INFR), and Exchange Rate (EXR). Additionally, Economic Growth is measured by the Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate (RGDP). It utilises published data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Results indicate the long-term statistical significance of the money supply (MS), inflation rate (INF), and exchange rate concerning their impact on the Growth Rate of RGDP. In the short run, it was seen that the MS exhibited statistical significance and exerted a positive influence on RGDP. Conversely, both INTR and EXR were statistically significant and were associated with a negative and significant association with RGDP. Consequently, the study suggests implementing monetary policy to cultivate a conducive investment climate. This may be achieved by promoting market-driven interest and currency rates, stimulating domestic investment, and enticing foreign direct investment.
Co-Authors Ibrahim Musa, Ibrahim Wafure, Obida Gomna