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Abidile, Lebotsamang
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Public Health

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Assessment of COVID-19 Deaths in Botswana using the SIRD Model for the Period 2020 to 2022 Abidile, Lebotsamang
Journal of Epidemiology and Public Health Vol. 10 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : Masters Program in Public Health, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26911/jepublichealth.2025.10.05.01

Abstract

Background: There is need for a development of a robust model framework for COVID-19 to help researchers simulate several virus transmission scenarios, assist in predicting the disease route as well as assess the effectiveness of mitigation measures. COVID-19 data with four compartmental groups, that is susceptible group, the infected group, the recovered group, and the deceased group was required to enable setting up a mathematical compartmental model called Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) for Botswana. This study aims to set up the SIRD model for COVID-19 in Botswana.Subjects and Method: The study took advantage of a retrospective cohort study carried out in Botswana specifically from a period ranging from 14th May 2020 to 3rd March 2022. The study population consisted of all persons who are susceptible to COVID-19 in Botswana and the sample size of this study was 2,397,240. Therefore, the variables of interest for this study were susceptible, infected, recovered as well as deceased persons. These were secondary data as reported by Botswana and recorded on the WHO website. Data for this study were analyzed using simulation methods specifically compartmental analysis.Results: COVID-19 will escalate at a very low transmission at an exponential growth rate of 0.11. The transmission of COVID-19 in Botswana will spread in the population and such spread may cause an epidemic (R0=1.13).Conclusion: The Ministry of Health and Wellness should ensure that there is slow relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in order to avoid the reappearance of COVID-19. The Ministry of Health and Wellness should also strictly insist on COVID-19 adherence protocols mainly during the winter season as well as holidays.
Detection of Change Patterns in COVID-19 Deaths and the Implementation of Public Health Policies in Botswana Abidile, Lebotsamang; Nyakudya, Morvyn
Journal of Epidemiology and Public Health Vol. 10 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : Masters Program in Public Health, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26911/jepublichealth.2025.10.05.07

Abstract

Background: At the earlier stages of COVID-19 disease, there were no pharmaceutical measures such as vaccines and medications available that could be used to either treat or reduce the spread of the virus. Countries worldwide reverted to implementing several non-pharmaceutical measures to end or at least reduce the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. These included maintaining the physical distance of 1-2 meters in all gatherings, washing hands with soap and clean water, sanitizing hands, and wearing face masks especially when physical distancing cannot be certain. In this study, we aim to determine the change patterns or turning points in COVID-19 deaths, particularly those that occurred in Botswana.Subjects and Method: The study used a retrospective cohort study conducted in Botswana for a period ranging from the 14th May 2020 up to the 3rd March 2022. The population covered for this study comprised of all persons who were susceptible to COVID-19 in Botswana. The researcher used secondary data sourced from Botswana’s Ministry of Health and Wellness. Data for this study were statistically analysed using R software version 4.1.3 to apply the simulation methods.Results: High numbers of COVID-19 deaths in Botswana were recorded starting from week 59 to week 69 and the numbers declined from week 70 to week 75. Altogether, COVID-19 deaths in Botswana have been rising since 14th May 2020 until 3rd March 2022.Conclusion: It is important for the Government of Botswana through Ministry of Health and Well-ness to ensure that COVID-19 restrictions are slowly relaxed to avoid the recurrence of the disease. COVID-19 adherence protocols should be strictly enforced by the Ministry more especially during winter seasons as well as public holidays.
Assessment of COVID-19 Deaths in Botswana using the SIRD Model for the Period 2020 to 2022 Abidile, Lebotsamang
Journal of Epidemiology and Public Health Vol. 10 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : Masters Program in Public Health, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26911/jepublichealth.2025.10.05.01

Abstract

Background: There is need for a development of a robust model framework for COVID-19 to help researchers simulate several virus transmission scenarios, assist in predicting the disease route as well as assess the effectiveness of mitigation measures. COVID-19 data with four compartmental groups, that is susceptible group, the infected group, the recovered group, and the deceased group was required to enable setting up a mathematical compartmental model called Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) for Botswana. This study aims to set up the SIRD model for COVID-19 in Botswana.Subjects and Method: The study took advantage of a retrospective cohort study carried out in Botswana specifically from a period ranging from 14th May 2020 to 3rd March 2022. The study population consisted of all persons who are susceptible to COVID-19 in Botswana and the sample size of this study was 2,397,240. Therefore, the variables of interest for this study were susceptible, infected, recovered as well as deceased persons. These were secondary data as reported by Botswana and recorded on the WHO website. Data for this study were analyzed using simulation methods specifically compartmental analysis.Results: COVID-19 will escalate at a very low transmission at an exponential growth rate of 0.11. The transmission of COVID-19 in Botswana will spread in the population and such spread may cause an epidemic (R0=1.13).Conclusion: The Ministry of Health and Wellness should ensure that there is slow relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in order to avoid the reappearance of COVID-19. The Ministry of Health and Wellness should also strictly insist on COVID-19 adherence protocols mainly during the winter season as well as holidays.
Detection of Change Patterns in COVID-19 Deaths and the Implementation of Public Health Policies in Botswana Abidile, Lebotsamang; Nyakudya, Morvyn
Journal of Epidemiology and Public Health Vol. 10 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : Masters Program in Public Health, Universitas Sebelas Maret, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26911/jepublichealth.2025.10.05.07

Abstract

Background: At the earlier stages of COVID-19 disease, there were no pharmaceutical measures such as vaccines and medications available that could be used to either treat or reduce the spread of the virus. Countries worldwide reverted to implementing several non-pharmaceutical measures to end or at least reduce the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. These included maintaining the physical distance of 1-2 meters in all gatherings, washing hands with soap and clean water, sanitizing hands, and wearing face masks especially when physical distancing cannot be certain. In this study, we aim to determine the change patterns or turning points in COVID-19 deaths, particularly those that occurred in Botswana.Subjects and Method: The study used a retrospective cohort study conducted in Botswana for a period ranging from the 14th May 2020 up to the 3rd March 2022. The population covered for this study comprised of all persons who were susceptible to COVID-19 in Botswana. The researcher used secondary data sourced from Botswana’s Ministry of Health and Wellness. Data for this study were statistically analysed using R software version 4.1.3 to apply the simulation methods.Results: High numbers of COVID-19 deaths in Botswana were recorded starting from week 59 to week 69 and the numbers declined from week 70 to week 75. Altogether, COVID-19 deaths in Botswana have been rising since 14th May 2020 until 3rd March 2022.Conclusion: It is important for the Government of Botswana through Ministry of Health and Well-ness to ensure that COVID-19 restrictions are slowly relaxed to avoid the recurrence of the disease. COVID-19 adherence protocols should be strictly enforced by the Ministry more especially during winter seasons as well as public holidays.
Co-Authors Nyakudya, Morvyn