Article Per Year (5 Year)
p-Index From 2020 - 2025
0.23
P-Index
This Author published in this journals
All Journal J-Intech (Journal of Information and Technology)
Asrul, Divanda Arya Inasta
Unknown Affiliation
Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Engineering Library & Information Science

Published : 1 Documents Claim Missing Document
Claim Missing Document
Check
Articles

Found 1 Documents
Search
Journal : J-Intech (Journal of Information and Technology)

 1 
Optimalisasi Prediksi Kasus COVID-19 di Indonesia: Perbandingan Teknik Validasi 80-20 Split dan Walk-Forward dengan ARIMA Asrul, Divanda Arya Inasta; Soebroto, Arief Andy
J-INTECH (Journal of Information and Technology) Vol 12 No 02 (2024): J-Intech : Journal of Information and Technology
Publisher : LPPM STIKI MALANG

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.32664/j-intech.v12i02.1373

Abstract

This study presents a comparative analysis of the 80-20 split and walk-forward validation techniques for forecasting daily COVID-19 cases in Indonesia using the ARIMA model. Building on previous research, the ARIMA model has proven effective in various epidemiological contexts; however, this study highlights the critical importance of selecting the appropriate validation technique. The study uses data from January 3, 2020, to October 18, 2023, to develop a predictive model evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The findings indicate that the walk-forward validation technique outperforms the 80-20 split, with MAE of 137.32 and RMSE of 198.23, compared to the 80-20 split MAE of 4190.92 and RMSE of 4479.15. These results suggest that walk-forward validation provides more accurate and reliable predictions, particularly for dynamic and non-stationary data scenarios. This study underscores the significant impact of validation technique selection on ARIMA model performance, contributing new insights into forecasting methodologies in epidemiology.
Co-Authors Arief Andy Soebroto