Emmanuel Agbeni, Kehinde
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The Government Expenditures, Economic Growth and Poverty Levels in Nigeria: A Disaggregated Approach Emmanuel Agbeni, Kehinde; Akanni, Olusola; Yetunde Francisca , Adekoya; Judith Gbadebo, Adedoyin; Chioma Ejikeme , Precious; Alexander Nwuko, Obinna; Ezeokolie, Chima
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT REVIEW Vol 3 No 1 (2025): Current Issue 7
Publisher : SMARTINDO

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58765/ijemr.v3i1.249

Abstract

Purpose - This study uses the disaggregation approach to investigate how government spending affects economic growth and poverty levels in Nigeria. The study was anchored on the human capacity theory and two specific objectives were formulated to guide the study. Recent estimates indicate that 67.12% of the Nigerian population is living below one dollar per day. Nationally, 40.7 percent of Nigerians (89 million people) live below the poverty line, while another 25 percent (53 million) are vulnerable (World Bank,2024). Design/methodology/approach - This study using secondary data, this study looks at how different sectors of government expenditures affected poverty and economic growth in Nigeria between 1991 and 2023.  Short- and long-run relationships are evaluated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, and nonlinear effects are examined using the Threshold Regression Approach. To determine the direction of causality, the study also employs the Granger Causality Test and the Error Correction Model. Originality -  The authors here by declare that no generative AI tools, including text-to-image generators and large language models (ChatGPT, COPILOT, etc.), were used in the creation or editing of manuscripts. Findings and Discussion - reveal that while economic growth insignificantly reduces poverty in both the short and long run, government spending does not have a statistically significant impact on poverty in Nigeria. In the short run, recurrent expenditures on agriculture, health, and education negatively but insignificantly affect economic growth, while expenditures on debt servicing and road construction show a negligible positive effect. Poverty will decrease by 0.45 points in the short term and 0.96 points in the long term for every point increase in government spending at the 1% level of significance. The findings did not support the Keynesian theory or Wagner's Law in Nigeria, which found that government spending increases economic growth and it has ability in reducing poverty in an economy.  The study concludes that the current economic trajectory in Nigeria cannot be sustained and recommends increased government allocations to priority sectors such as health, education, agriculture, and infrastructure. Conclusion - Based on this finding, we can conclude that the type of government expenditure in Nigeria sectors on (Education, Agriculture and Health) have either been insufficient or have not been effectively and efficiently allocated as its ability to reduce poverty is very low and insignificant. It concludes that the current economic trajectory cannot be sustained and recommends increased government allocations to priority sectors such as health, education, agriculture, and infrastructure.
Analysis of Factors Affecting Economic Growth and Poverty in Nigeria: A Panel Data Approach Emmanuel Agbeni, Kehinde; Okonkwo Chukwu, Charity; Adebayo Anya, Anya; Oluwabusayo Donatus, Mercy
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT REVIEW Vol 3 No 3 (2025): Current issue 8
Publisher : SMARTINDO

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58765/ijemr.v3i3.359

Abstract

Purpose - This study examines the key factors influencing economic growth and poverty reduction in Nigeria, with a focus on investment, government spending, exchange rates, infrastructure, and population dynamics. It explores how these variables interact to shape poverty outcomes in the Nigerian context. Design/methodology/approach - The study employs panel data regression analysis using secondary data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, World Bank Development Indicators, and National Bureau of Statistics, covering 1990–2022. Path analysis was used to capture both direct and indirect effects. Key regression results show that investment significantly drives GDP growth (β = 0.312, p < 0.05), while government spending positively impacts poverty reduction through its effect on output. However, population growth exerts pressure on poverty levels, weakening the gains from GDP growth. Originality -  Unlike previous studies that often treat growth and poverty separately, this paper integrates the two, offering fresh empirical insights into how macroeconomic variables simultaneously influence Nigeria’s growth-poverty nexus. Findings and Discussion - The findings indicate that expansion in investment and infrastructure improves growth outcomes, which in turn reduce poverty. For example, the regression shows that a 1% increase in investment raises GDP by 0.35%, while a 1% rise in government expenditure reduces poverty incidence by 0.22%. Yet, persistent exchange rate fluctuations and high population growth counter these gains, limiting poverty reduction. Conclusion - The study concludes that targeted investment, stable fiscal policies, and stronger infrastructure development are essential to accelerate growth and achieve poverty reduction in Nigeria. Policy reforms should address population pressures and exchange rate instability to ensure sustainable economic progress.