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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika)
Syahputra, Bimo Okta
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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MODELING THE INFLUENCE OF CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION AGAINST INDONESIAN SOLAR WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX WITH LEAST SQUARE SPLINE ESTIMATOR APPROACH Pratiwi, Rosidun Nindyo; Fauziah, Nathania; Syahputra, Bimo Okta; Firmanda, Ahmad Wahyu; Amelia, Dita
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 2 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss2pp805-818

Abstract

Solar plays a crucial role in supporting energy sector activities in Indonesia. The fluctuating price of solar is influenced by crude oil production, as crude oil is the main raw material in solar production. The Russia-Ukraine war, which reached its peak in March 2020, also impacted global oil production, given that Russia is one of the largest oil producers and exporters in the world. This study aims to model the effect of crude oil production on the Solar Wholesale Price Index (SWPI) in Indonesia after the Russia-Ukraine war using the Least Squares Spline estimator approach. This approach was chosen because the relationship between the variables is complex and nonlinear, making linear models unsuitable. The results show that the best model is a nonparametric model with three knot points at a polynomial degree of one, which explains 90.26% of the variability in crude oil production relative to the SWPI. The optimal knot points were selected using the Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) method, resulting in a minimum GCV value of 320.9889. Crude oil production was found to have a significant effect on the SWPI and meets the classical assumption tests. However, this study has limitations, as it only considers the effect of crude oil production without including other external factors, such as energy policies or geopolitical influences. Additionally, the model still has limitations in capturing more complex relationship patterns. This study offers an original contribution through the application of the Least Squares Spline estimator approach, which has not been widely used before in analyzing the relationship between crude oil production and SWPI in Indonesia. For future research, it is recommended that the model be expanded by considering more knot points and higher polynomial degrees to capture more complex relationship patterns between these variables.
Comparing MARS and Binary Logistic Regression to Modelling Hepatitis C Cases using the SMOTE Balancing Method Chamidah, Nur; Ramadhanti, Aulia; Ramadhani, Azzah Nazhifa Wina; Syahputra, Bimo Okta; Ariyawan, Jovansha; Kurniawan, Ardi
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 10, No 1 (2026): January
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v10i1.33196

Abstract

Hepatitis is an inflammatory liver disease caused by viral infection and remains a major global public health concern, responsible for approximately 1.4 million deaths annually. Egypt is among the countries with the highest prevalence of Hepatitis C. To address this issue and support Goal 3 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), this study applies a quantitative approach using secondary data to analyze factors influencing Hepatitis C infection in Egypt. Two statistical models Binary Logistic Regression and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) were compared, with the SMOTE method implemented to correct class imbalance. The dataset consisted of 608 patient observations, initially imbalanced at a ratio of 86.5:13.5, and were balanced to 52.6:47.4 after SMOTE application. The results revealed that the MARS model demonstrated superior predictive performance compared to binary logistic regression. All independent variables were found statistically significant (p < 0.05), except sex. Additionally, all odds ratios were less than 1, indicating a lower probability of Hepatitis C infection relative to non-infection. These findings highlight the relevance of statistical modeling and data-driven strategies in supporting preventive health measures. 
Co-Authors Ardi Kurniawan Ariyawan, Jovansha Dita Amelia, Dita Fauziah, Nathania Firmanda, Ahmad Wahyu Nur Chamidah Pratiwi, Rosidun Nindyo Ramadhani, Azzah Nazhifa Wina Ramadhanti, Aulia