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All Journal Equiva Signal and Image Processing Letters Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Inovatif Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Inovatif
Bahar, Nur Qadri
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Humanities Automotive Engineering Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Mathematics Social Sciences Other

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Analisis Penyebaran COVID-19 di Sulawesi Selatan Menggunakan Machine Learning (Regression Models) Bahar, Nur Qadri; Rauf, Nurul Maqfirah
Equiva Journal Vol 2 No 2 (2024):
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika dan Teknologi Informasi

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Abstract

COVID-19 merupakan bencana yang sangat mengganggu manusia secara global abad ini. Berbagai macam dampak buruk diakibatkan oleh pandemi COVID-19, mulai dari dampak sosial, ekonomi, psikologi dan ekonomi. Dunia telah banyak belajar dari pandemi COVID-19, termasuk bagaimana mengatasi dan mengurangi dampak buruk akibat COVID-19 dengan berbagai macam ilmu dan perangkat, termasuk menggunakan machine learning dalam menganalisis bencana dan dampaknya. Machine learning menggunakan berbagai teknik dalam penerapannya, salah satunya adalah regresi yang mampu memberikan solusi bagi banyak permasalahan, termasuk menganilis penyebaran COVID-19. Dengan framework yang dimiliki oleh bahasa pemrograman python, machine learning mampu menganalisis dan memberikan insight yang tersembunyi dari dataset yang dikoleksi oleh Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Sulawesi Selatan. Dalam penelitian ini, dilakukan analisis penyebaran COVID-19 menggunakan model regresi linear biasa, regresi ridge, dan regresi LASSO. Model regresi ridge mampu menjelaskan variabilitas dataset (variabel target) dengan tingkat yang paling baik dengan . Namun dari ketiga model yang dibangun, semuanya memiliki performa yang kurang, dengan MAPE yang sangat tinggi. Model regresi biasa memiliki MAPE sebesar 2.5722572116 pada training dan 3.0803084681 pada testing. Model regresi ridge memiliki MAPE sebesar pada training dan . Model regresi LASSO memiliki MAPE sebesar pada training dan pada testing. Dengan MAPE yang tinggi pada training dan testing, artinya semua model terindikasi underfitting, sehingga perlu ditindaklanjuti dengan membangun model yang lebih kompleks.
Protecting South Sulawesi: Combination of Random Forest Regressor and SEIRS Mathematical Model in the Analysis and Prediction of the Spread of Covid-19 Bahar, Nur Qadri; Side, Syafruddin; Abdy, Muhammad
Signal and Image Processing Letters Vol 7, No 1 (2025)
Publisher : Association for Scientific Computing Electrical and Engineering (ASCEE)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31763/simple.v7i1.126

Abstract

This applied research seeks to examine the dynamics of Covid-19 transmission in South Sulawesi Province. Additionally, this study will also forecast the future spread of Covid-19. This research comprises two phases: the investigation of Covid-19 transmission utilizing the SEIRS mathematical model, incorporating Vaccination and PPKM (Enforcement of Community Activity Restrictions), and the prediction of Covid-19 spread through machine learning techniques. The utilized data is secondary data sourced from the South Sulawesi Provincial Health Office. This study developed a machine learning model utilizing a random forest regressor algorithm due to its proficiency in identifying nonlinear data patterns. This model effectively accounts for the variability of the dataset (target variable) with a R2 score of 95%. The evaluation findings of the random forest regressor model indicated satisfactory performance, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 29.57 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 54.42 during training, and an MAE of 58.55 and an RMSE of 98.67 during testing. Given the significant variability in Covid-19 data and the prevalence of zeros in the dataset, the MAE and RMSE values for both training and testing are deemed acceptable. This model is designed to forecast daily Covid-19 instances in the future. This work not only employs machine learning but also analyzes the dissemination of Covid-19 through the SEIRS mathematical model, incorporating vaccination and PPKM factors. The SEIRS model analysis indicates that the disease-free equilibrium point is stable when R01 and unstable when R01. The fundamental reproduction rate derived from the vaccine's efficacy is v=65.3%, and the compliance rate with PPKM is ?=1%. Consequently, R0=1.2407288, indicating that Covid-19 will propagate in South Sulawesi Province. For ?=11%, R0=1.0167230. This indicates that Covid-19 will stabilize, and with ?=69%, R0=0.2338689, suggesting that Covid-19 will vanish from South Sulawesi Province.?
Training on Strategies to Pass CPNS Test for CPNS Applicants Through the Giat Belajar Abadi Platform Santoso, Eka Krisna; Azka, Muhammad; Kamila, Isti; Indrawan; Rauf, Nurul Maqfirah; Bahar, Nur Qadri
Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Inovatif Vol. 2 No. 2 (2024): JPMI (Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Inovatif)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Pakuan

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Abstract

The acceptance of Civil Servant Candidates (CPNS) is an opportunity highly anticipated by the community to build a career in the government sector. However, tight competition and complex selection stages are often the main challenges for applicants. Many applicants fail due to a lack of understanding of the selection process, ineffective learning strategies, and minimal information about the success criteria. The partner of this Community Service activity is Giat Belajar Abadi. Giat Belajar Abadi (GBA) is a lifelong learning platform designed to help people improve their skills and expand their knowledge. This platform offers a variety of classes and learning programs related to business, self-development, and more. However, Giat Belajar Abadi has not yet opened a class for training strategies to pass the Civil Servant Candidate (CPNS) test. Therefore, a community service program is needed for Giat Belajar Abadi partners by opening a training class on CPNS test strategies. This class will help CPNS applicants to be better prepared for the selection, both technically and mentally, increasing their chances of success. The purpose of this Community Service activity is to increase understanding of CPNS selection strategies through Giat Belajar Abadi partners. Therefore, the target audience of this activity is CPNS applicants. The outcome of this Community Service program is an increased understanding of CPNS selection strategies. Through this program, it is hoped that the success rate of participants in the CPNS selection will increase, while creating more competent human resources ready to contribute to the government sector. This program also has a long-term impact on improving the quality of CPNS applicants’ preparation in the future.
Training on Strategies to Pass CPNS Test for CPNS Applicants Through the Giat Belajar Abadi Platform Santoso, Eka Krisna; Azka, Muhammad; Kamila, Isti; Indrawan; Rauf, Nurul Maqfirah; Bahar, Nur Qadri
Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Inovatif Vol. 2 No. 2 (2024): JPMI (Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Inovatif)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Pakuan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

The acceptance of Civil Servant Candidates (CPNS) is an opportunity highly anticipated by the community to build a career in the government sector. However, tight competition and complex selection stages are often the main challenges for applicants. Many applicants fail due to a lack of understanding of the selection process, ineffective learning strategies, and minimal information about the success criteria. The partner of this Community Service activity is Giat Belajar Abadi. Giat Belajar Abadi (GBA) is a lifelong learning platform designed to help people improve their skills and expand their knowledge. This platform offers a variety of classes and learning programs related to business, self-development, and more. However, Giat Belajar Abadi has not yet opened a class for training strategies to pass the Civil Servant Candidate (CPNS) test. Therefore, a community service program is needed for Giat Belajar Abadi partners by opening a training class on CPNS test strategies. This class will help CPNS applicants to be better prepared for the selection, both technically and mentally, increasing their chances of success. The purpose of this Community Service activity is to increase understanding of CPNS selection strategies through Giat Belajar Abadi partners. Therefore, the target audience of this activity is CPNS applicants. The outcome of this Community Service program is an increased understanding of CPNS selection strategies. Through this program, it is hoped that the success rate of participants in the CPNS selection will increase, while creating more competent human resources ready to contribute to the government sector. This program also has a long-term impact on improving the quality of CPNS applicants’ preparation in the future.
Co-Authors Azka, Muhammad Indrawan Isti Kamila Muhammad Abdy Rauf, Nurul Maqfirah Santoso, Eka Krisna Syafruddin Side