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All Journal Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING)
Latif Alfiyan Zuhri
Institut Teknologi Bandung
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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KERANGKA MANAJEMEN RISIKO DUA METODE UNTUK PROYEK COAL-TO-SNG: STUDI KASUS PADA BUMN SEKTOR ENERGI BUMN DI INDONESIA Latif Alfiyan Zuhri; Yunieta Anny Nainggolan
Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING) Vol. 8 No. 3 (2025): COSTING : Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting
Publisher : Institut Penelitian Matematika, Komputer, Keperawatan, Pendidikan dan Ekonomi (IPM2KPE)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31539/costing.v8i3.15006

Abstract

PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) menghadapi tantangan terkait penurunan permintaan dan harga batubara secara global serta peraturan lingkungan yang lebih ketat. Untuk mempertahankan bisnisnya, PTBA menginisiasi proyek Coal to Synthetic Natural Gas (SNG) sebagai bagian dari strategi diversifikasi bisnis. Namun, proyek ini menghadapi tantangan dan ketidakpastian. Studi ini mengeksplorasi risiko yang terkait dengan proyek Coal-to-SNG dengan menggunakan pendekatan metode kombinasi dari Risk Matrix dan Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) melalui wawancara dan kuesioner. Sebanyak 38 risiko diidentifikasi terkait dengan proyek di beberapa kategori. Tujuh risiko prioritas utama disorot termasuk ketidakpastian kebijakan/peraturan, ketidakstabilan geopolitik, pemilihan teknologi, kesulitan pendanaan proyek, penurunan harga LNG, pelanggaran tata kelola perusahaan yang baik (GCG), serta penundaan perizinan. Penelitian ini menemukan bahwa metode yang berbeda dapat memberikan perspektif yang berbeda, karena sifat subjektif Matriks Risiko sebagai pendekatan kualitatif berdasarkan kemungkinan dan konsekuensi versus AHP yang lebih kuantitatif berdasarkan pembobotan perbandingan berpasangan. Kombinasi kedua metode tersebut meningkatkan akurasi dan keandalan analisis sesuai dengan prinsip ISO 31000:2018. Penelitian ini berkontribusi secara teoritis dengan menghadirkan pendekatan metode kombinasi dari Risk Matrix (kualitatif) dan Analytical Hierarchy Process (kuantitatif) dalam kerangka kerja ISO 31000:2018 yang dapat direplikasi dan diadaptasi dalam proyek serupa, terutama proyek hilirisasi batubara atau transisi energi.
A DUAL-METHOD RISK MANAGEMENT FRAMEWORK FOR COAL-TO-SNG PROJECTS: EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA’S STATE-OWNED ENERGY SECTOR Latif Alfiyan Zuhri; Yunieta Anny Nainggolan
Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING) Vol. 9 No. 3 (2026): Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING)
Publisher : Institut Penelitian Matematika, Komputer, Keperawatan, Pendidikan dan Ekonomi (IPM2KPE)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31539/0b52nc25

Abstract

PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) faces challenges regarding the global decline in coal demand and price as well as stricter environmental regulation. To sustain its business, PTBA is initiating Coal to Synthetic Natural Gas (SNG) project as part of business diversification strategy. However, the project faces challenges and uncertainties. This study explores the risks associated with the project by using a dual method approach of Risk Matrix and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) through interviews and questionnaires. A total of 38 risks were identified associated with the project across several categories. Seven top priority risks were highlighted including policy/regulatory uncertainty, geopolitical instability, technology selection, difficulties in project funding, LNG price decline, violation of good corporate governance (GCG), as well as licensing delays. The study found that different methods may provide different perspectives, due to the subjective nature of Risk Matrix as qualitative approach based on likelihood and consequence versus AHP which is more quantitative based on pairwise comparison weighting. The combination of both methods enhances the accuracy and reliability of the analysis in accordance with the principles of ISO 31000:2018. This study contributes theoretically by presenting a replicable dual-method approach of Risk Matrix (qualitative) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (quantitative) within the ISO 31000:2018 framework that can be adapted in similar projects, especially coal downstream or energy transition projects.
Co-Authors Yunieta Anny Nainggolan, Yunieta Anny