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All Journal Journal of Islamic Monetary Economics and Finance
Anwer, Zaheer
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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DOES GEOPOLITICAL RISK MATTER FOR ASEAN5 ECONOMIES? EVIDENCE ON CONVENTIONAL AND ISLAMIC COMPLIANT INDICES Anwer, Zaheer; Ahmad, Fiaz
Journal of Islamic Monetary Economics and Finance Vol. 11 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/jimf.v11i2.2469

Abstract

We assess the interlinkage of geopolitical risk and returns of conventional and Shariah Compliant indices from five ASEAN economies for the period Jan 2019 – Mar 2023 using daily data. We assess this phenomenon through the lens of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and Risk and Return Theory. The sampled indices belong to Morgan Stanely Capital International (MSCI) and Standard and Poor (S&P). We employ Quantile Regression and Wavelet Coherence approaches. The results reveal that geopolitical risk does not significantly affect ASEAN5 indices for both conventional and Shariah Compliant categories. Moreover, there is very little dynamic co-movement between geopolitical risk and sampled indices. Malaysia and Indonesia emerge as the countries exhibiting the least co-movement and offer safe haven properties against geopolitical risk. The findings carry important implications for investors and policymakers.
HOW ASEAN4 CONVENTIONAL, ISLAMIC, AND ESG INDICES REACT TO TWITTER MARKET UNCERTAINTY? Anwer, Zaheer
Journal of Islamic Monetary Economics and Finance Vol. 11 No. 3 (2025)
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/jimf.v11i3.2699

Abstract

We investigate the time varying return spillover of ASEAN4 asset classes from four countries including Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia, and Twitter based market uncertainty measure, using daily data from 01-Sep-2014 to 21-Apr-2023. The estimations are performed using TVP-VAR approach. The results reveal that the dynamic connectedness of ASEAN4 markets fluctuates significantly. It peaked during bearish periods (2015-2016 and 2020) and remained low during market booms (2017-2018 and 2022). Islamic and ESG indices exhibit patterns similar to conventional indices. Indonesia and Malaysia emerge as net shock transmitters until the pandemic, with Thailand becoming a net transmitter post-COVID. Thailand’s role shifts between receiver and transmitter based on economic conditions relative to other ASEAN countries. Twitter Market Uncertainty Index (TMUENG) primarily remains a receiver, with limited impact on ASEAN4 Conventional, Islamic, and ESG indices. The findings are robust to a battery of robustness tests and carry important policy implications for investors and policymakers.
Co-Authors Ahmad, Fiaz