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All Journal Media Statistika BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Qoyyimi, Danang Teguh
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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PRICING RESIDENTIAL EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE IN INDONESIA Anwar, Alief Glenfico; Qoyyimi, Danang Teguh; Putra, Hengki Eko
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 17, No 2 (2024): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.17.2.150-161

Abstract

Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) is a framework that integrates social protection, disaster risk reduction, and climate change adaptation to enhance resilience against shocks and hazards. As a country vulnerable to earthquakes, Indonesia faces threats of losses due to seismic disasters. The national budget available to cover these losses can only address 13.6% of the total disaster-related losses. This study proposes an earthquake insurance scheme to protect all residences in Indonesia as part of the ASP framework, followed by the calculation of premium rates for this insurance scheme. This study utilizes the built-in OpenQuake calculator known as the probabilistic event-based risk calculator to simulate annual earthquake losses over a period of 10,000 years. The negative binomial distribution and the Pareto IV distribution are assessed as the most optimal models in modeling frequency and severity through distribution fitting. The application of collective risk models and the principle of pure premium results in a pure premium rate of 0.3994073 ‰. This pure premium rate can serve as a starting point in the establishment of comprehensive residential earthquake insurance in Indonesia.
ADAPTED PRESTON’S CURVE: A PROXY METHOD FOR LONGEVITY RISK ANALYSIS ON INDONESIAN PENSION PLAN Qoyyimi, Danang Teguh; Utama, Rifki Chandra
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 17 No 2 (2023): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol17iss2pp0895-0902

Abstract

Future lifetime will increase as both the standard of living and the health insurance system develop. This increase will have an effect on financial contracts' actuarial present values, particularly the liabilities of pension funds. Longer-lived retirees will have more financial obligations to the pension plan in the future. Preston established a link between GDP and life expectancy at birth, which served as the inspiration for this paper's concept. We strive to advance Preston's work on longevity analysis, particularly how to create a proxy approach for capturing the dynamic of the mortality model with other data. In this case, we utilize Lee-Carter model to capture the long-term dynamics of mortality rate, and our GDP-related measure will be based on the model's parameters. We use the Human MortD data to gather the longevity parameter’s estimate and fit the relationships using linear, local linear, and and kernel regressions. Since the long-term goal of this study is longevity risk management in Indonesia, hence the model's applicability is assessed by how closely it resembles Indonesia's mortality models. We discovered that the linear model, which has an RMSE of 2.19234, has the lowest RMSE, then we conclude that the long term relationships between longevity parameters and GDP can be explained by linear model.
Co-Authors Anwar, Alief Glenfico Putra, Hengki Eko Utama, Rifki Chandra