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All Journal JMECS (Journal of Measurements, Electronics, Communications, and Systems) Abdi: Jurnal Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat
Alya Fitri Syalsabilla
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Health Professions Materials Science & Nanotechnology Medicine & Pharmacology Public Health

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Integration Model of Weighted Fuzzy Time Series, Relative Strength Index and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo in Gold Price Forecasting (Case Study: Gold Prices for the Period April 2017 - 2023) Indra, Dody; Agus Fachrur Rozy; Alya Fitri Syalsabilla
JMECS (Journal of Measurements, Electronics, Communications, and Systems) Vol. 11 No. 2 (2024): JMECS
Publisher : Universitas Telkom

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25124/jmecs.v11i2.8830

Abstract

Gold investment presents significant profit potential but is also associated with substantial risks, making gold price forecasting a critical challenge in financial market analysis. This study integrates Weighted Fuzzy Time Series (WFTS), Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (IKH) to enhance the accuracy of gold price predictions. WFTS is employed to address data uncertainty by modeling price movement patterns using fuzzy logic and historical weight-based data. RSI evaluates price fluctuations over a defined period to identify overbought or oversold conditions, while IKH identifies trends and key support and resistance levels. A comparative evaluation of WFTS and ARIMA across four standard error metrics demonstrates the superior performance of WFTS in gold price forecasting accuracy. WFTS achieves lower MAE (349.55 vs 355.05), smaller MSE (186,054.98 vs 188,203.37), lower RMSE (431.34 vs 433.82), and a more favorable MAPE (19.9% vs 20.0%) than ARIMA. With reduced absolute and squared errors, WFTS proves to be a more stable and reliable predictive model, offering greater effectiveness compared to ARIMA. The results indicate that WFTS forecasts an upward trend in gold prices, providing valuable insights for investors. IKH corroborates this trend through indicators such as the Conversion Line, Base Line, Lead Line A, and Lead Line B. Additionally, RSI calculations reveal an overbought signal between 2019 and 2021, suggesting potential selling opportunities. Furthermore, the gold price remained above the lower RSI threshold, indicating a probable price increase and offering investors profitable decision-making prospects.
Pengenalan Peluang dan Regresi Linier Sederhana pada Siswa di Sanggar Wira Damai Malaysia Astutik, Suci; Darmanto, Darmanto; Nur Silviyah Rahmi; Rismania Hartanti Putri Yulianing Damayanti; Alya Fitri Syalsabilla; Aurora Gema Bulan Octavia
ABDI: Jurnal Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat Vol 8 No 1 (2026): Abdi: Jurnal Pengabdian dan Pemberdayaan Masyarakat
Publisher : Labor Jurusan Sosiologi, Fakultas Ilmu Sosial, Universitas Negeri Padang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24036/abdi.v8i1.1246

Abstract

Tujuan dari kegiatan pengabdian masyarakat ini adalah agar siswa dapat meningkatkan kompetensi dalam melakukan pengolahan data statistik, khususnya teori peluang dan analisis regresi sebagai bekal siswa di masyarakat. Sasaran kegiatan pengabdian ini adalah siswa di Sanggar Wira Damai Malaysia. Pengabdian masyarakat dilakukan melalui pemberian materi dan diskusi tentang pemahaman dan aplikasi teori peluang dan analisis regresi, guna meningkatkan produktivitas dan keberlanjutan Sanggar Wira Damai Malaysia. Kegiatan pengabdian masyarakat diikuti sebanyak 28 orang peserta didik di Sanggar Wira Damai Malaysia. Untuk mengetahui sejauh mana efektivitas pelaksanaan kegiatan pengabdian masyarakat ini, dilakukan evaluasi melalui observasi deskriptif siswa sebelum dan setelah kegiatan. Selanjutnya untuk mengetahui apakah pengabdian masyarakat ini dapat meningkatkan kemampuan siswa secara signifikan, dilakukan uji t berpasangan. Hasil dari uji berpasangan menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan antara sebelum dan setelah pemberian materi (p value > 0,05). Hal ini karena materi baru bagi siswa dan keterbatasan kemampuan siswa dalam berhitung.
Co-Authors Agus Fachrur Rozy Aurora Gema Bulan Octavia Darmanto Darmanto Indra, Dody Nur Silviyah Rahmi Rismania Hartanti Putri Yulianing Damayanti Suci Astutik