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All Journal CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Civil and Environmental Science Journal (CIVENSE)
Nabila, Nuzulul Laili
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Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Engineering Environmental Science Mathematics

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Analysis of Binary Logistic Regression Model on Passenger Transportation Mode Selection Between Train and Bus on Malang-Blitar Route Nabila, Nuzulul Laili; Abusini, Sobri; Sa'adah, Umu
Civil and Environmental Science Journal (CIVENSE) Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : Fakultas Teknik Universitas Brawijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/ub.civense.2024.008.01.6

Abstract

The transportation dynamics between Malang and Blitar, characterized by significant student and worker mobility, present a complex decision-making landscape for public transportation mode selection. This study employed binary logistic regression to analyze factors influencing passenger choices between trains and buses, utilizing a comprehensive survey of 100 respondents. The research revealed convenience as the most statistically significant factor in transportation mode selection, transcending traditional considerations such as ticket pricing. Despite 80 participants initially expressing a preference for trains, the predictive model suggested a potential scenario where 74% might ultimately choose buses. This counterintuitive finding highlights accessibility, service frequency, boarding ease, and overall travel comfort in transportation decision-making. By quantifying the probabilistic relationships between various variables, the study provides transportation planners with a sophisticated analytical tool for understanding passenger behavior. The findings underscore passengers' willingness to pay a premium for transportation modes offering greater flexibility and comfort, challenging conventional assumptions about cost-driven travel choices. The binary logistic regression model's insights provide valuable guidance for infrastructure development and service optimization in the Malang-Blitar transportation corridor, emphasizing the critical role of convenience in shaping transportation preferences.
Ensemble Bagging in Binary Logistic Regression for Transportation Mode Selection Nabila, Nuzulul Laili; Abusini, Sobri; Sa'adah, Umu
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 10, No 2 (2025): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v10i2.32241

Abstract

This study examines train versus bus transportation mode choice on the Malang–Blitar route using binary logistic regression combined with ensemble bagging. Data from 100 respondents were analyzed using 80% for training and 20% for testing with k-fold cross-validation. Variables included travel cost differences, time, safety, comfort, and ease of access. Bagging was selected over other ensemble methods due to its effectiveness in reducing variance and overfitting with small datasets. Results showed the standard logistic regression achieved 85% accuracy on test data, while ensemble bagging with 200 replications improved accuracy to 90.83% (confidence interval: 90.379%–91.187%). McNemar’s test confirmed a statistically significant improvement (p 0.01). Under equivalent conditions, 20.6% of respondents preferred trains while 79.4% chose buses. Ease of access emerged as the primary decision factor, outweighing cost and time considerations. The optimal replication number was 200; exceeding 300 replications decreased model performance. This research contributes an optimized ensemble methodology for transportation mode prediction in developing countries, demonstrating that accessibility infrastructure significantly influences passenger preferences over traditional economic factors.
Co-Authors Sa'adah, Umu Sobri Abusini