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All Journal BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika)
Makhbubah, Karina Rubita
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Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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LEPROSY CASE MODELING IN EAST JAVA USING SPATIAL REGRESSION WITH QUEEN CONTIGUITY WEIGHTING Saifudin, Toha; Rifada, Marisa; Makhbubah, Karina Rubita; Ramadhanty, Devira Thania
BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan Vol 19 No 3 (2025): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application
Publisher : PATTIMURA UNIVERSITY

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss3pp2141-2154

Abstract

Leprosy, a highly contagious disease caused by the bacterium Mycobacterium leprae, can result in permanent disability if left untreated. It remains a significant public health issue in many regions, particularly tropical countries like Indonesia. Despite ongoing control efforts, incidence rates are still high in some areas. In 2023, East Java had the highest number of leprosy cases in Indonesia, with 2,124 out of 7,166. To understand the factors contributing to these cases, this study explores various influences and offers policy recommendations to reduce leprosy in East Java. The study uses spatial modeling with a weighting scheme based on queen contiguity, selected because leprosy spreads through human interactions and movement, creating spatial dependencies. It examines spatial, social, economic, educational, and environmental factors based on cross-sectional data from 38 regencies/cities in East Java for 2023. Among the regression models tested, the spatial error regression model proved most effective, showing an R-Square value of 67.14% and an AIC of 213.023. Key findings identified () average years of schooling and () healthcare worker ratios as significant factors influencing leprosy cases. These results aim to guide policymakers in developing stronger leprosy control strategies and offer a basis for further research in East Java.
Prediction of Dow Jones Index, US Inflation, and Interest Rate with Kernel Estimator and Vector Error Correction Model Mardianto, M. Fariz Fadillah; Syahzaqi, Idruz; Permana, Made Riyo Ary; Makhbubah, Karina Rubita; Vanisa, Davina Shafa; Afifa, Fitriana Nur
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 9, No 2 (2025): April
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v9i2.28460

Abstract

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is the oldest running U.S. stock market index, established by Dow Jones & Company under Charles Dow. Comprising thirty major publicly traded companies, the DJIA is a key indicator of macroeconomic health, reflecting investor confidence and economic stability. This study applies a quantitative research approach to forecast DJIA stock prices, inflation, and U.S. interest rates using time series analysis. Two forecasting methods are compared: Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Kernel regression. VECM, a parametric approach, estimates both short- and long-term relationships among economic variables, while Kernel regression, a nonparametric technique, effectively captures complex, nonlinear relationships without strict model assumptions. The results indicate that the Gaussian Kernel method provides the most accurate predictions, achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 5.72%. The analysis also shows that despite annual fluctuations, the DJIA has exhibited a steady growth trend from 2009 to 2024, with both its starting and ending prices increasing over time. This research is significant for investors, policymakers, and financial analysts, offering insights into market trends and economic indicators. By providing a reliable forecasting model, it aids in better decision-making regarding stock market investments and economic policies.
Co-Authors Afifa, Fitriana Nur M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto Marisa Rifada Permana, Made Riyo Ary Ramadhanty, Devira Thania Syahzaqi, Idruz Toha Saifudin Vanisa, Davina Shafa