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Odah, Sabbar Thijeel
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Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Using Markov Chain to Forecast Stock Price Movement in The Iraq Stock Exchange Odah, Sabbar Thijeel
International Journal on Economics, Finance and Sustainable Development (IJEFSD) Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025): International Journal on Economics, Finance and Sustainable Development (IJEFSD
Publisher : Research Parks Publishers

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31149/ijefsd.v7i3.5389

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to apply "Markov chain" modeling to the Iraq Stock Exchange Index (ISX60) over a period of 231 trading days, from January 02, 2024, to December 30, 2024. The prediction was made by identifying three cases of stock price movement: height, low, and stability. The transition matrix and probability vector for the Markov chain were created, and the results showed that the probability of a decrease in the Iraq Stock Exchange Index prices was the highest, reaching (0.489), the probability of a rise in prices was the lowest, reaching (0.177), and the probability of stock price stability was (0.33). The purpose of this study was to raise local investors' understanding of the Markov chain model's predictive power to aid in investment decision-making.
Evaluation of The Trading Strategy Using The "Moving Average" in The Iraqi Stock Market Odah, Sabbar Thijeel
International Journal on Economics, Finance and Sustainable Development (IJEFSD) Vol. 7 No. 2 (2025): International Journal on Economics, Finance and Sustainable Development (IJEFSD
Publisher : Research Parks Publishers

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31149/ijefsd.v7i3.5390

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate the trading strategy using simple moving average with different lengths of "10 days, 20 days, 50 days, 100 days, 150 days, 200 days" on the Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX60) index during (109) trading days, and compare it with the simple buy and hold strategy. The findings show that, despite the Iraq Stock Exchange's lack of efficiency at the basic level, trading with moving averages may predict price movement and, after subtracting trading expenses, produces profits that are higher than those of the buy and hold strategy. Additionally, compared to other moving averages, the 20-day simple "moving average" is more predictive.
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