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All Journal Journal of Marine Resources and Coastal Management
Santoso, Eko Hadi
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Environmental Science

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Assessment of sea level rise and tidal flood vulnerability in the coastal region of Jepara, Central Java, Indonesia Christiananda; Sawiji, Asri; Santoso, Eko Hadi
Journal of Marine Resources and Coastal Management Vol. 5 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29080/mrcm.v5i2.2201

Abstract

The coastal region of Jepara, Central Java, is increasingly vulnerable to environmental hazards due to rising sea levels, land subsidence, and climatic variability. Recent public concerns regarding the potential submergence of parts of Jepara and the possible reappearance of the ancient Muria Strait underscore the need for a scientific assessment of regional coastal stability. This study aims to evaluate the impacts of sea level rise on the vulnerability of Jepara’s coastal areas to tidal inundation. Using secondary data from 2013 to 2024, the analysis includes trends in mean sea level (MSL), sea surface temperature (SST), and documented land subsidence in nearby coastal cities. The results indicate an average annual MSL increase of 4.23%, with projections reaching up to 3.83 meters by 2050 if current trends persist. SST also shows a consistent upward trend, contributing to thermal expansion and sea level rise. Tidal flood mapping reveals that rice fields and coastal settlements are the most affected land uses, with 1,960.66 hectares of agricultural land and 207.48 hectares of residential area exposed to periodic inundation. The compounded effects of sea level rise, SST increase, and subsidence suggest an urgent need for mitigation planning and adaptive infrastructure to reduce future flood risks.
Topographic change analysis and flood risk assessment in Jepara Regency, Indonesia, using GIS-based multi-criteria spatial analysis Gymnastiar, Achmad Raihan; Ardasyah, Aksatria Krisna; Sawiji, Asri; Santoso, Eko Hadi
Journal of Marine Resources and Coastal Management Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29080/mrcm.v7i1.2301

Abstract

Jepara Regency, located on the northern coast of Central Java, Indonesia, with a coastline of approximately 82.72 km, has experienced significant topographic changes driven by natural processes and anthropogenic activities. These changes, combined with increasing rainfall variability, have heightened flood risk in several parts of the region. This study aims to analyze topographic changes between 2014 and 2023 and to assess flood risk by integrating rainfall intensity and slope characteristics using a GIS-based multi-criteria spatial analysis approach. This research utilizes secondary spatial and climatological data. Rainfall data for the period 2020–2022 were obtained from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) and classified according to rainfall intensity levels. Topographic and slope data were derived from the National Digital Elevation Model (DEMNAS) and the Indonesian Topographic Map (RBI). The analysis involved slope classification, scoring, weighting, and weighted overlay techniques using Geographic Information System (GIS) tools implemented in ArcMap software. The results indicate pronounced seasonal rainfall variability in Jepara Regency, with the lowest rainfall intensity occurring in July and the highest intensities recorded between December and January, ranging from 10.45 to 85.91 mm/day. Topographic analysis shows that areas with moderate slopes (8–15%) are vulnerable to extreme weather events and potential slope instability, while flat areas with slopes of 0–1% exhibit high susceptibility to flooding due to limited surface runoff capacity and land-use conditions. The total flood-prone area identified covers approximately 686.6 ha. Overall, the integration of rainfall and topographic parameters through GIS-based multi-criteria spatial analysis proves effective in identifying flood-risk zones and provides valuable input for spatial planning, disaster risk reduction, and coastal management in Jepara Regency.
Temporal variability of meteorological and oceanographic parameters in Tuban Waters, Indonesia, and their relationships with ENSO and IOD Anggilia, Elsa; Ma’arif, Rodhi Naufal; Sawiji, Asri; Santoso, Eko Hadi
Journal of Marine Resources and Coastal Management Vol. 7 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29080/mrcm.v7i2.2552

Abstract

Global climate variability influences meteorological and oceanographic conditions in Indonesian coastal waters, including Tuban Waters. This study aimed to analyze the temporal variability and anomalies of meteorological and oceanographic parameters and to evaluate the relationships between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) with environmental variability in Tuban Waters during 2015–2024. Meteorological and oceanographic data were obtained from BMKG, NOAA, and NASA Ocean Color, including rainfall, sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a concentration, wind speed, wave height, current velocity, tidal elevation, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). Trend analysis, anomaly analysis, and Spearman correlation analysis were applied to assess temporal variability and climate–environment relationships. The results showed decreasing trends in wind speed, wave height, and rainfall, whereas current velocity exhibited moderate variability without a clear long-term trend. Rainfall variability was significantly negatively correlated with both DMI (ρ = −0.353, p < 0.01) and ONI (ρ = −0.293, p < 0.01), indicating that positive IOD and El Niño conditions were generally associated with reduced rainfall. SST anomalies were significantly negatively correlated with DMI (ρ = −0.332, p < 0.01), whereas their relationship with ONI was weak and not statistically significant. Chlorophyll-a anomalies exhibited weak correlations with both climate indices, suggesting that local oceanographic processes, particularly nutrient dynamics and water-column mixing, played a greater role in regulating biological variability. Overall, the results indicate that rainfall variability in Tuban Waters is influenced by both ENSO and IOD, whereas SST variability is more closely associated with IOD and regional oceanographic processes. In contrast, chlorophyll-a variability is primarily controlled by local oceanographic conditions, with only limited influence from large-scale climate variability. These findings provide an integrated understanding of meteorological and oceanographic variability and their interactions with climate variability in Tuban Waters, supporting coastal environmental monitoring and management.
Long-term variability of oceanographic–meteorological parameters in Banyuwangi waters, Indonesia, related to ENSO and the IOD Putri, Devi Amelia Eka; Zakky, Muhammad; Sawiji, Asri; Santoso, Eko Hadi
Journal of Marine Resources and Coastal Management Vol. 7 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : UIN Sunan Ampel Surabaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29080/mrcm.v7i2.2555

Abstract

Oceanographic and meteorological parameters in tropical coastal waters are highly dynamic and strongly influenced by large-scale climate variability, particularly the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). As global climate change intensifies atmospheric and oceanic variability, Indonesia’s coastal regions, including Banyuwangi waters, become increasingly vulnerable to environmental fluctuations. This study aims to analyze long-term trends and anomalies of oceanographic–meteorological parameters during 2015–2024 and evaluate their relationships with ENSO and IOD variability. The analyzed parameters included wind speed, significant wave height, surface current velocity, tides, rainfall, sea surface temperature (SST), and chlorophyll-a concentration. Linear regression was applied to identify long-term trends, while Spearman’s rank correlation analysis was used to assess relationships between climate indices and environmental parameters. The results indicate increasing trends in wind speed (6.47–6.76 knots), significant wave height (0.867–0.901 m), surface current velocity (8.18–8.65 cm s⁻¹), and tidal height (10.00–10.04 cm), whereas rainfall exhibited a decreasing trend from 6.14 mm to 4.88 mm during the study period. Correlation analysis revealed that ENSO and IOD exerted variable influences on rainfall, SST, and chlorophyll-a concentration, with significant correlations occurring only during specific years. ENSO showed a strong positive relationship with rainfall in 2023 (ρ = 0.704), while IOD exhibited a significant negative relationship with rainfall in 2015 (ρ = −0.666). Significant relationships were also identified between climate indices and SST as well as chlorophyll-a concentration, indicating that regional oceanographic conditions respond to both large-scale climate forcing and local environmental factors. Overall, the findings demonstrate that the impacts of ENSO and IOD on Banyuwangi waters are dynamic and temporally variable, emphasizing the importance of long-term monitoring to support coastal resource management and climate adaptation strategies.
Co-Authors Anggilia, Elsa Ardasyah, Aksatria Krisna Asri Sawiji Christiananda Gymnastiar, Achmad Raihan Ma’arif, Rodhi Naufal Putri, Devi Amelia Eka Zakky, Muhammad