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All Journal Jurnal Riset danAplikasi Teknik Industri (JRATI) Serambi Engineering
Dewi, Yulida Intani
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Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Energy Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering

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Journal : Serambi Engineering

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Marketing Strategy Determination Using Markov Chain and Game Theory: A Case Study of Ready-to-Drink Tea Products Herdiana, Mochamad Rafi; Dewi, Yulida Intani; Ikatrinasari, Zulfa Fitri; Amrina, Uly
Jurnal Serambi Engineering Vol. 10 No. 3 (2025): Juli 2025
Publisher : Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Serambi Mekkah

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Abstract

Decrease in the number of demand in the market and the transfer of consumers from the Nuu Green Tea brand to the Pucuk Harum Tea brand or vice versa is a result that can occur from market share competition. The calculation results obtained after doing manual calculations using the Markov chain method are the probability of transferring the subscription from each product a few times ago, at this time, and the time to come. For the time to come alone based on the steady state obtained is in the 10th year period. With the probability value of the movement from the shoot tea to Nuu Green Tea is 0.413 for a period some time ago and at this time, for other products transfer can be seen in Figure IV.6. For the value of the steady state in the 10th iteration with the mastery of the shoots of the market share of 0.4158 or 41.58% and Nuu Green Tea controlled the market share of 0.5841 or 58.41%.  The calculation results that have been done manually and the use of application assistance can be concluded that the use of the maximin-minimax method produces an optimum solution, namely on X1 for row players (The Pucuk), and Y1 for column players (Nuu Green Tea). With a game value of 32. then the best marketing strategy used by Teh pucuk and Nuu Green Tea is the attribute 'flavor variant' by utilizing the flavor variant of the two can compete in the flavor variant.
Inventory Management Optimization of Snack to Minimize Days Sales Inventory (DSI) and Total Cost Dewi, Yulida Intani; Elfantoro, Indra; Herdiana, Mochamad Rafi; Ikatrinasari, Zulfa Fitri
Jurnal Serambi Engineering Vol. 11 No. 1 (2026): Januari 2026
Publisher : Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Serambi Mekkah

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This study aims to optimize inventory control for snack products in the retail industry, characterized by highly fluctuating demand and elevated Days Sales Inventory (DSI) levels. Focusing on Class A products with high DSI offers the greatest potential impact on inventory management efficiency. The approach integrates Holt-Winters forecasting, ARIMA (1,1,1), and Random Forest Regression with quantitative models such as Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) and Periodic Order Quantity (POQ), as well as stock control techniques including Safety Stock and Reorder Point, to determine the optimal order quantity and ordering time. Sales data for 21 weeks were processed to generate sales forecasts for the subsequent 31 weeks, covering weeks 22 through 52, using all three forecasting methods. The evaluation metrics indicate that Random Forest Regression achieved the best performance, with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 42.4, Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 13.9%, and a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 46.7, The results show a significant reduction in DSI and total costs, contributing positively to strengthening the company’s cash flow. Further analysis over the 31-week period using the POQ method resulted in a decrease in DSI from the actual level of 111 days to 71 days, and also reduction in total cost from IDR 14.933.114 to IDR 10.104.863, representing a difference of IDR 4.828.250. In addition to the integrated forecasting and EOQ–POQ methods, it is recommended to enhance the adaptation of dynamic forecasting models that are more responsive to changes in demand patterns and to develop real-time monitoring systems using ERP or IoT technology to minimize the risks of stockouts and product spoilage. This research provides both practical and academic contributions toward achieving more efficient and sustainable inventory management for snack products. 
Co-Authors Elfantoro, Indra Herdiana, Mochamad Rafi Hernadewita Indra Kurniawan Uly Amrina Zulfa Fitri Ikatrinasari