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All Journal Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application Jurnal Riset Rumpun Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam (JURRIMIPA)
Melissa Chandra
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Education Mathematics

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Prediksi Jumlah Wisatawan Asing Masuk ke Indonesia Tahun 2026 Menggunakan Model Rantai Markov Anggi Nur Ananda Saragih; Widi Ningsih Panggabean; Melissa Chandra; Agnes Yulia Saragih; Sudianto Manullang; Alvi Sahrin Nasution; Mizan Hasibuan
Griya Journal of Mathematics Education and Application Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): Juni 2025
Publisher : Pendidikan Matematika FKIP Universitas Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.29303/griya.v5i2.620

Abstract

Indonesia's tourism sector experienced a drastic decline due to the pandemic, with the number of foreign tourists falling by 64.64% in 2020, disrupting contributions to the country's GDP and foreign exchange. The lack of application of stochastic models to predict foreign tourist arrivals nationwide is a challenge in policy planning. This research aims to build a Markov Chain-based prediction model to estimate the number of foreign tourists in 2026, overcoming the weaknesses of conventional approaches that are deterministic. The method used is the analysis of the probability of transition between states (Increase/Decrease/Stable) based on historical data of tourist arrivals. The prediction results show that the number of foreign tourists in 2026 reached 18,202,215 people, indicating an optimistic growth trend and potential recovery of the tourism sector. The conclusion of this study confirms that the Markov Chain model is effective for macro projection of tourist fluctuations, so that it can be a reference in the preparation of adaptive and data-based tourism policies.
Penerapan Minimun Spanning Tree dalam Penentuan Rute Objek Wisata di Kota Medan Menggunakan Algoritma Prim Melissa Chandra; Felicia Eldora; Ledy Meva Tiurma Gultom; Khoiriyati Azmi; Nerli Khairani
JURNAL RISET RUMPUN MATEMATIKA DAN ILMU PENGETAHUAN ALAM Vol. 4 No. 3 (2025): Desember : JURRIMIPA: Jurnal Riset Rumpun Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam
Publisher : Pusat riset dan Inovasi Nasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jurrimipa.v4i3.7710

Abstract

The development of science and technology has encouraged the utilization of graph theory in solving optimization problems, particularly in transportation systems and tourism route planning. Medan City, as a metropolitan area with dense road networks and widely dispersed tourist destinations, faces challenges in selecting efficient travel routes. This research aims to determine the optimal route between tourist destinations in Medan City using the Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) method with Prim’s Algorithm. The research was conducted using a weighted graph modeling approach, where each tourist destination is represented as a vertex and the distance between destinations is represented as an edge weight. Distance data and estimated travel time were obtained through digital mapping using Google Maps and then analyzed through iterations of Prim’s Algorithm to produce a minimum spanning tree without forming cycles. The results show that all 23 tourist destinations are successfully connected in a single MST structure with a minimum total distance of 68.97 km and a travel time of approximately 199 minutes or 3 hours and 19 minutes. This model is expected to serve as a reference for tourism planning and support urban transportation efficiency based on mathematical computation.
Co-Authors Agnes Yulia Saragih Alvi Sahrin Nasution Anggi Nur Ananda Saragih Felicia Eldora Khoiriyati Azmi Ledy Meva Tiurma Gultom Manullang, Sudianto Mizan Hasibuan Nerli Khairani Widi Ningsih Panggabean