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All Journal International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling Brilliance: Research of Artificial Intelligence Jurnal Matematika Integratif
Fatuh Inayaturohmat
Universitas Padjadjaran, Indonesia
Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation Other

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Optimal Control of Monkeypox Transmission Model with the Effect of Hospitalization Inayaturohmat, Fatuh; Pramesti, Retta Farah; Pratama, Gilar Budi; Cahyani, Nita; Hanifah, Aisyah
Jurnal Matematika Integratif Vol 21, No 1: April 2025
Publisher : Department of Matematics, Universitas Padjadjaran

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24198/jmi.v21.n1.62791.113-122

Abstract

Monkeypox, also known as mpox, is a zoonotic illness caused by the Monkeypox Virus (MPV), which belongs to the Orthopoxvirus genus within the Poxviridae family. According to a WHO report as of September 2023, the virus has spread to numerous non-endemic countries, showing a significant number of cases. The United States reported the highest count, with 4,259 cases. In contrast, Indonesia has reported relatively fewer cases compared to other Southeast Asian nations. Nonetheless, the risk of transmission, particularly through close personal contact, remains a public health concern. This study examined the transmission of monkeypox among human populations using the spread model proposed by previous research. The novelty of this research is the enhancement of the model by introducing hospitalization parameters as a control mechanism, aiming to determine the optimal hospitalization level to minimize the disease's spread. The method used for optimal control is minimum pontryagin principle. The model also consider the asymptomatic and symptomatic infected individuals. There is a transition from asymptomatic to symptomatic individuals. Numerical simulation results show that implementing this control leads to a more rapid decline in the number of symptomatic infected individuals compared to scenarios without control measures.
Optimal Control Strategies for a Hoax Transmission Model Fatuh Inayaturohmat; Mochammad Andhika Aji Pratama; Aisyah Hanifah; Retta Farah Pramesti
International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling Vol. 6 No. 4 (2025): International Journal of Quantitative Research and Modeling
Publisher : Research Collaboration Community (RCC)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46336/ijqrm.v6i4.1146

Abstract

Recently, information spreads swiftly and widely through social media and other online platforms. However, this rapid flow of information is often followed by an increasing circulation of inaccurate or misleading content, commonly known as hoaxes. A hoax refers to false, deceptive, or unfounded information that is spread either intentionally or unintentionally. Typically, hoaxes are crafted in such a way that they appear to be credible news, with the aim of influencing public perception, spreading disinformation, or gaining political or economic advantages. This research investigates the spread of hoaxes within human populations based on a transmission model developed in earlier studies. The main contribution of this work lies in refining the model by incorporating an education parameter as a control strategy to identify the optimal level of education required to reduce the dissemination of hoaxes. The optimal control approach applied is the Pontryagin minimum principle. The model also takes into account both asymptomatic and symptomatic infected individuals, including the transition from asymptomatic to symptomatic cases. Numerical simulations demonstrate that applying this control strategy results in a faster decrease in the number of symptomatic infected individuals compared to conditions without any control intervention
Profit Prediction for Skincare Resellers Using the Exponential Smoothing Method Nita Cahyani; Rahmat Irsyada; Azharil Firman; Fatuh Inayaturohmat; Retta Farah Pramesti
Brilliance: Research of Artificial Intelligence Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): Brilliance: Research of Artificial Intelligence, Article Research November 2025
Publisher : Yayasan Cita Cendekiawan Al Khwarizmi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47709/brilliance.v5i2.6585

Abstract

This research elucidates the application of the exponential smoothing method in forecasting profit figures for Lutfia MS Glow Skincare. This method was chosen due to its capability to adapt data using the alpha value, along with continual refinement based on exponentially smoothed historical averages. With an explanatory purpose, the study collected profit data from 2020 to 2022 at Lutfia MS Glow Skincare. The single exponential smoothing technique was employed to develop a profit prediction system, enabling the identification of sales trends and evaluation through metrics like Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE). The approach offers simplicity in implementation while providing relatively accurate results, especially for short-term forecasting. This makes it particularly useful in retail and skincare business contexts, where sales figures can be volatile due to seasonal demands or market fluctuations. By utilizing exponential smoothing, the research helps reduce forecasting errors and provides actionable insights for business planning. The result of the analysis showed a reasonably low error margin with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 3.65%, indicating high prediction accuracy. The research outcomes furnish skincare resellers and decision-makers with practical guidance in planning inventory, managing supply chains, and executing marketing strategies, ultimately supporting better data-driven decisions in a competitive industry.
Co-Authors Aisyah Hanifah Azharil Firman Gilar Budi Pratama Hanifah, Aisyah Mochammad Andhika Aji Pratama Nita Cahyani Pramesti, Retta Farah Rahmat Irsyada Retta Farah Pramesti Retta Farah Pramesti