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All Journal Journal of Computing Theories and Applications
Lawal, Maaruf M.
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management

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A Comparative Analysis of an Enhanced Hybrid Model for Predicting Dollar Against Naira Exchange Rate Using Deep Learning and Statistical Methods Odion, Philip O.; Lawal, Maaruf M.; Abdulrauf, Abdulrashid
Journal of Computing Theories and Applications Vol. 2 No. 4 (2025): JCTA 2(4) 2025
Publisher : Universitas Dian Nuswantoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62411/jcta.12513

Abstract

In today’s global economy, accurately predicting foreign exchange rates or estimating their trends correctly is crucial for informed investment decisions. Despite the success of standalone models like ARIMA and deep learning models like LSTM, challenges persist in capturing both linear and nonlinear dynamics in highly volatile exchange rate environments. Motivated by the limitations of these individual models and the need for more robust forecasting tools, this study proposes a hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model that integrates ARIMA’s strength in modeling linear trends with LSTM’s capability to capture nonlinear dependencies, using historical USD/NGN exchange rate data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) spanning 2001 to 2024. The research hypothesis posits that the hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model will significantly outperform standalone models in forecasting accuracy. By comparing these models against state-of-the-art approaches, the study highlights the advantages of hybridizing statistical and deep learning methods. The findings demonstrate that the hybrid model achieved the lowest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 2.216 and the highest R² of 0.998, indicating superior forecasting performance. This study fills a critical research gap by demonstrating the effectiveness of hybrid deep learning in financial time series forecasting, providing valuable insights for investors, policymakers, and financial analysts. Future research will extend this work by incorporating the latest dataset and evaluating model robustness during the recent surge in the Naira/Dollar exchange rate from 2023 to 2024.
Fake News Detection Using Bi-LSTM Architecture: A Deep Learning Approach on the ISOT Dataset Lawal, Maaruf M.; Abdulrauf, Abdulrashid
Journal of Computing Theories and Applications Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): JCTA 3(2) 2025
Publisher : Universitas Dian Nuswantoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.62411/jcta.14235

Abstract

The proliferation of fake news across digital platforms has raised critical concerns about information reliability. A notable example is the viral rumour falsely claiming that the Nigerian Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, had collapsed at an event and was rushed to an undisclosed hospital an entirely fabricated claim that caused public confusion. While both traditional machine learning and deep learning approaches have been explored for automated fake news detection, many existing models have been limited to topic-specific datasets and often suffer from overfitting, especially on smaller datasets like ISOT. This study addresses these challenges by proposing a standalone Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) model for fake news classification using the ISOT dataset. Unlike multi-modal frameworks such as the MM-FND model by state-of-the-art model, which achieved 96.3% accuracy, the proposed BiLSTM model achieved superior results with 98.98% accuracy, 98.22% precision, 99.65% recall, and a 98.93% F1-score. The model demonstrated balanced classification across both fake and real news and exhibited strong generalization capabilities. However, training and validation performance plots revealed signs of overfitting after epoch 2, suggesting the need for regularization in future work. This study contributes to the growing body of research on fake news detection by showcasing the efficacy of a focused, sequential deep learning model over more complex architectures, offering a practical, scalable, and robust solution to misinformation detection
Co-Authors Abdulrauf, Abdulrashid Odion, Philip O.